In today's volatile commodity environment, grain marketing is no longer about simply choosing a price target. Producers and market professionals must now engage in scenario planning and prepare for outcomes once deemed unlikely. With corn futures hitting a three-week high and weather disruptions, yield pressure, and global demand shifts in play, forward-thinking isn't optional - it's essential for farm profitability and risk management.

December corn futures climbed to $4.24 per bushel, fueled by diminishing U.S. yield prospects and tightening supply in cash markets. A significant factor behind this strength is the narrowing futures "carry," as the spread between short- and long-term contracts shrinks. Technical indicators confirm bullish momentum, with prices breaking above the 100-day simple moving average - a level not surpassed since late September. Yield reductions, coupled with poor weather conditions and early reports of ear molds and mycotoxins, have turned once-bearish sentiment more cautious. This shift is prompting many producers to rethink passive storage or waiting strategies and instead adopt re-ownership tactics to regain pricing flexibility.

At the same time, soybean markets show signs of renewed strength. November futures reached $10.1550, supported by robust crush data and elevated domestic demand. However, the picture isn't entirely bullish. China's reduced appetite for U.S. soybeans - stemming from ongoing trade tensions and high premiums on Brazilian supplies - is weighing on export optimism. Sources indicate that China may turn to state reserves to meet near-term needs, rather than securing high-priced imports. U.S. farmers are watching closely, as export timing and basis moves will play a large role in marketing decisions this fall.

Wheat futures also rebounded, with December SRW contracts briefly touching their highest level in a week. But the upside appears limited. Analysts point to a larger-than-expected U.S. harvest and intensifying global export competition as headwinds. Despite these factors, U.S. exports are 18% ahead of last year, giving growers some support even as supply remains ample.

In this environment, traditional strategies are falling short. Scenario planning - mapping out sharply divergent price outcomes and corresponding sales strategies - is becoming a must. Naomi Blohm, market analyst at Total Farm Marketing, emphasizes that today's grain marketing is about "preparing for the unthinkable." That means being ready for anything from a sharp rally sparked by export disruptions or weather shocks, to a prolonged downturn driven by massive harvests or economic instability. Farmers need to establish trigger prices, consider layered sales, and use crop insurance tools in tandem with market hedges. The goal isn't to predict - it's to prepare.

Complicating matters further, the ongoing federal government shutdown has halted the release of USDA's key reports, including Crop Progress and export sales, making it harder to verify trends in real time. Without that data, market participants must rely more heavily on satellite imagery, private forecasts, and anecdotal harvest updates - raising the stakes for those unprepared.

Meanwhile, the broader weather picture adds urgency. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormal dryness or drought in 72% of the Midwest, particularly Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio. Delayed harvest, reduced yields, and poor grain quality are all growing concerns. Ethanol production remains elevated, helping to absorb some of the extra corn supply, but analysts believe USDA may soon revise its yield estimates lower - from 186.7 bushels per acre to around 185, according to a Reuters survey.