The spring wheat crop in 2025 is showing dramatic differences across U.S. growing states, according to the July 20 USDA Crop Progress report. While some states are seeing near-optimal growing conditions, others are struggling with poor weather, drought, and slower development. The disparity in crop quality could have ripple effects on commodity prices, grain supply, and harvest timing heading into late summer.

As of the latest report, Minnesota leads the nation in spring wheat condition, while Montana holds the bottom spot, marking a significant quality gap that reflects local agronomic challenges.

Biologicals

Biologicals Gain Ground in Latin America, but Where Do They Really Fit in the Grower's Toolbox?

Minnesota's spring wheat crop is currently the best-rated in the U.S., with 87% in good to excellent condition, 10% fair, and only 3% poor. Remarkably, none of the crop is considered very poor. The state's progress is also ahead of schedule, with 99% of the crop headed, five points above the five-year average. This indicates a potentially strong yield outlook if weather conditions hold steady into harvest.

South Dakota follows, with 70% of its spring wheat rated good/excellent, 25% fair, and 5% poor/very poor. The crop is fully headed, maintaining parity with last week's progress and comfortably ahead of the 96% five-year average. These figures reflect stable growing conditions and consistent management across the state's farms.

In North Dakota, the picture is slightly less favorable. Only 67% of the crop is considered good or excellent, while 27% is fair, and 6% poor/very poor. However, 91% of the crop has headed, up 10 percentage points from the prior week and still ahead of the five-year average of 86%. North Dakota remains a key producer, and although the quality is lower than its neighbors to the south, the state's crop is progressing relatively well.

Idaho's spring wheat condition is notably more mixed. Just 56% of the crop is rated good/excellent, with 30% fair and 14% poor/very poor. Still, 99% of the crop has headed, putting it five points ahead of the five-year average. The data suggest some regional variability in field performance, potentially influenced by irrigation stress or pest pressure.

Washington state, however, has seen a sharp decline in spring wheat health. Just 21% of the crop is good/excellent, while a concerning 38% is rated poor or very poor. The remaining 41% is fair. Despite these poor conditions, 100% of the crop has headed, up from 97% last week. This matches the state's five-year average, but the quality ratings suggest growers may be dealing with drought, heat stress, or other limiting factors that threaten yields and protein levels.

Finally, Montana's crop is in the worst shape among the six major spring wheat-producing states. Only 7% of the crop is rated good, with zero percent considered excellent. A majority of the wheat-52%-is rated fair, while a staggering 41% falls under poor/very poor categories. Compounding the challenge is slow development: only 66% of Montana's crop had headed as of July 20, compared to the five-year average of 84% and 86% at this time last year. This lag could expose late-developing wheat to early frost risk, further impacting quality and yields.

These disparities in spring wheat condition are likely to influence market behavior, especially in milling and export sectors. With Minnesota and South Dakota offering higher quality grain, traders and millers may shift sourcing preferences, while lower-grade wheat from Montana and Washington may be redirected to feed or domestic secondary markets.

The USDA will continue to monitor the crop's condition in the coming weeks, but these midseason numbers offer critical insights for grain buyers, agronomists, and policymakers tracking the 2025 wheat supply chain.