USDA's latest 2026 crop estimates are flashing a warning for soybean producers: Oklahoma, Texas, South Carolina, North Dakota and Kansas are projected to record yields ranging from just 28 to 38 bushels per acre, with Kansas suffering the sharpest year-over-year setback. The federal estimates, released in USDA-NASS's August Crop Production cycle and updated in state agricultural data through Aug. 27, matter because weaker yields can leave farmers spreading land, machinery and other production expenses across fewer bushels, increasing the pressure on margins as harvest approaches.

The numbers reveal very different levels of exposure. Oklahoma has the lowest projected soybean yield at 28 bushels per acre (bpa), while Texas stands at 32 bpa, South Carolina at 33 bpa, North Dakota at 34 bpa and Kansas at 38 bpa. The original USDA-based dataset supplied for this analysis shows Oklahoma down 1 bpa from 2025, Texas unchanged, South Carolina up 2 bpa, North Dakota down 0.5 bpa and Kansas down a striking 10.5 bpa from last season, making the Sunflower State the clearest year-over-year deterioration among the five.

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2026 Soybean Yield Outlook

Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, August 2026 Crop Production data.

Kansas and North Dakota turn the yield warning into a much bigger economic story

Low yields do not carry the same economic weight in every state. USDA's current state data put Kansas soybean production at 178.22 million bushels from 4.69 million harvested acres, while Oklahoma is forecast at only 14 million bushels from 500,000 acres. That distinction is critical for producers, co-ops, grain handlers, processors and lenders: a substantial yield decline across millions of acres has a much larger regional impact than a similar decline in a comparatively small soybean-producing area. USDA itself says its August Crop Production information is used for marketing, production and risk-management decisions across the agricultural sector.

North Dakota amplifies that issue even further. USDA data underlying the August outlook project 229.16 million bushels of soybeans from 6.74 million harvested acres, making it the largest soybean producer among these five lower-yield states. Its expected yield of 34 bpa is only half a bushel below 2025, but the enormous acreage means that relatively small movements in final yield can translate into millions of bushels of production. That puts North Dakota firmly on the radar for elevators, processors and other supply-chain participants watching available soybean volumes as the 2026 harvest develops.

Production Scale Changes the Risk

Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2026 Crop Production estimates.

Kansas presents perhaps the strongest economic warning. USDA currently projects 38 bpa across 4.69 million harvested acres, producing 178.22 million bushels. Compared with the 2025 yield cited in USDA data, that represents a 10.5-bpa decline. For growers, the key issue is not simply losing bushels: fewer harvested bushels can raise the effective cost per unit when substantial production expenses have already been committed. That makes commodity prices, basis, crop insurance protection, input costs and marketing strategies increasingly important in determining whether weaker yields translate into significantly tighter farm income.

USDA's Crop Progress information adds another dimension. For the week ending Aug. 23, 78% of Kansas soybeans had begun setting pods, compared with a five-year average of 75%, while 2% was dropping leaves, matching the five-year average. Condition ratings showed 44% of the crop as good and 6% excellent, meaning 50% was rated good-to-excellent. The remaining crop was rated 33% fair, 13% poor and 4% very poor. USDA-NASS maintains these weekly reports specifically to track crop development and condition through the growing season.

North Dakota showed faster crop development but weaker overall condition ratings in the USDA information. By Aug. 23, 94% of soybeans had begun setting pods, six percentage points ahead of the five-year average, while 8% was dropping leaves. However, only 26% of soybeans were rated good and 1% excellent. Another 43% was considered fair, while 22% was poor and 8% very poor. That contrast is important: rapid crop development does not automatically translate into strong yield potential, particularly when a substantial share of fields remains in fair-to-poor condition as harvest approaches.

Soybean Condition Shows Different Levels of Stress

Source: USDA-NASS Crop Progress and Condition, week ending Aug. 23, 2026.

The story is therefore larger than a simple ranking of low-yield states. Oklahoma carries the lowest yield, Kansas the largest year-over-year decline and North Dakota the greatest production volume among the five states examined. Those three variables create different financial risks for growers and agribusinesses. Final profitability will still depend on realized yields, commodity prices, basis, crop insurance and individual cost structures, but USDA's August numbers provide an increasingly important benchmark for harvest planning, cash-flow management and marketing decisions heading into the final stretch of the 2026 soybean season.