USDA Corn Yield Forecast Puts Oklahoma, South Carolina and Colorado at Bottom
USDA's August forecast identifies Oklahoma, South Carolina and Colorado as the lowest-yielding corn states for 2026, with sharp year-over-year declines raising concerns over crop conditions and farm margins.
USDA's Aug. 12 Crop Production forecast puts Oklahoma, South Carolina and Colorado at the bottom of the state corn-yield rankings for 2026, with projected averages of 95, 100 and 107 bushels per acre (bpa), respectively. The outlook matters as harvest advances because all three states are facing substantial declines from 2025, increasing production risk for growers already managing volatile commodity prices and elevated input costs. The national corn yield forecast cited in the underlying USDA-based material stands at 180.7 bpa, highlighting the unusually wide gap between these states and the U.S. average.
USDA's Lowest 2026 Corn Yield Forecasts
| State | 2026 Yield Forecast | Change From 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 95 bpa | -27 bpa |
| South Carolina | 100 bpa | -38 bpa |
| Colorado | 107 bpa | -26 bpa |
Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Crop Production, Aug. 12, 2026.
The yield gap is substantial. Oklahoma's forecast is 85.7 bushels per acre below the national projection, while South Carolina trails it by 80.7 bpa and Colorado by 73.7 bpa. Those differences should not be interpreted as evidence that the entire U.S. corn crop is experiencing comparable losses, since production scale and growing conditions vary considerably by state. But for farmers, co-ops, crop insurance providers and grain buyers operating in these markets, the regional deterioration is significant. Lower yields can reduce the number of bushels available to absorb fertilizer, seed, machinery, land and other fixed and variable production costs.
Oklahoma has the weakest yield outlook. USDA projects just 95 bpa, down 27 bushels from the state's 2025 yield, with total production estimated at 46.55 million bushels across 490,000 acres. The latest crop-condition numbers reinforce the production concern. For the week ending Aug. 23, USDA rated 14% of Oklahoma corn very poor, 9% poor, 32% fair, 40% good and 5% excellent. Meanwhile, 19% of the crop had already been harvested, providing the first transition from preseason and in-season estimates toward actual field results as combines move through the state.
South Carolina faces an even steeper year-over-year decline. USDA projects an average yield of 100 bpa, down 38 bushels from 2025, the largest annual decrease among the three states. Production is forecast at 33.5 million bushels across 335,000 acres. Harvest was already 36% complete by Aug. 23, 10 percentage points ahead of the five-year average. With more than one-third of the crop harvested, actual results will increasingly determine whether current USDA expectations hold and how much pressure lower output places on individual farm revenue, marketing commitments and crop insurance outcomes.
Production and Harvest Progress Across the Three States
| State | Forecast Production | Acres / Harvest Progress |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 46.55 million bu. | 490,000 acres / 19% harvested |
| South Carolina | 33.50 million bu. | 335,000 acres / 36% harvested |
| Colorado | 126.26 million bu. | 1.180 million acres / Not yet reported |
Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Crop Production, Aug. 12, and Crop Progress, Aug. 24, 2026.
Colorado presents a different production profile. Despite ranking third-lowest for yield among the states highlighted here, it carries by far the largest projected corn volume of the three. USDA forecasts 126.26 million bushels from 1.180 million acres, with an average yield of 107 bpa, down 26 bushels from 2025. Corn harvest for grain had not yet been reported in Colorado in the latest data included in the source material. That leaves greater uncertainty over how current yield expectations will translate into harvested production, putting additional attention on upcoming USDA crop reports as the season advances.
Colorado Corn Conditions Raise the Strongest Warning Signal
Crop-condition ratings provide another measure of the pressure facing growers. Colorado stands out: 31% of its corn was rated very poor and another 37% poor as of Aug. 23, putting 68% of the crop in USDA's two weakest categories. South Carolina followed with 41% rated poor or very poor, while Oklahoma stood at 23%. The contrast is also visible at the upper end of the ratings. Only 19% of Colorado corn was considered good or excellent, compared with 31% in South Carolina and 45% in Oklahoma. These figures help explain why the three states are positioned well below the national yield forecast.
Corn Condition Ratings as of Aug. 23
| State | Very Poor + Poor | Good + Excellent |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 23% | 45% |
| South Carolina | 41% | 31% |
| Colorado | 68% | 19% |
Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Crop Progress, Aug. 24, 2026. Combined percentages calculated from USDA crop-condition categories.
The state-level breakdown is even more revealing. Colorado's crop was rated 31% very poor, 37% poor, 13% fair, 18% good and only 1% excellent. South Carolina stood at 14% very poor, 27% poor, 28% fair, 26% good and 5% excellent. Oklahoma reported 14% very poor, 9% poor, 32% fair, 40% good and 5% excellent. Condition ratings are not final yield measurements, but they provide farmers, agronomists and grain-market participants with an important indication of crop stress ahead of harvest and help frame the production risk embedded in USDA's current forecasts.
USDA Crop Ratings Show Wide Differences in Field Conditions
| State | Fair | Very Poor / Poor / Good / Excellent |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 32% | 14% / 9% / 40% / 5% |
| South Carolina | 28% | 14% / 27% / 26% / 5% |
| Colorado | 13% | 31% / 37% / 18% / 1% |
Source: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Crop Progress, Aug. 24, 2026, for the week ending Aug. 23.
Lower Yields Put Farm Margins and Risk Management in Focus
For growers, the financial impact of a disappointing crop will depend on final harvested yields, local basis, commodity prices, marketing decisions and crop insurance coverage. Fewer harvested bushels can increase the effective cost per bushel of seed, fertilizer, machinery, land and other inputs, particularly when expenses were established around higher yield expectations. At the same time, localized production losses do not guarantee enough of a price increase to offset individual farm losses. That makes risk management increasingly important as harvest data replace projections and farmers evaluate revenue against insurance guarantees and forward-contract obligations.
The USDA figures also demonstrate why a strong national average can coexist with serious regional production problems. The 180.7-bpa national forecast contrasts with only 95 bpa in Oklahoma, 100 bpa in South Carolina and 107 bpa in Colorado. For agronomists, lenders, co-ops, livestock producers and grain buyers, those regional differences can influence local grain availability, basis and farm economics even when the broader U.S. supply picture remains much stronger. The next USDA Crop Production and Crop Progress updates will therefore be critical for determining whether conditions stabilize or the yield outlook changes as more combines enter the fields.
