China Is Gaining Ground in Latin America-and U.S. Agriculture Is Watching
China's growing role in Latin America is reshaping farm trade as soybeans, meat, tariffs and new ports intensify competition with U.S. agriculture.
On October 3, 2026, new Latinobarómetro data showed that 65% of Latin Americans view China's influence positively, compared with 57% for the United States. For U.S. agriculture, the gap matters well beyond public opinion. China has become a critical market for Brazil and other Latin American agricultural exporters, increasing competition in soybeans, meat and other commodities, while new port investments are strengthening trade connections between South America and Asia.
The shift has developed alongside a much deeper economic relationship. Positive perceptions of China rose from 48% in 2020 to 65% in 2026, while the U.S. measure slipped from 60% to 57%. Meanwhile, merchandise trade between China and Latin America grew from just over $14 billion in 2000 to more than $500 billion in 2024. China has overtaken the United States as South America's largest trading partner, although the U.S. retains a much stronger commercial position in Mexico, Central America and much of the Caribbean.
China's positive perception reached 65% across Latin America, compared with 57% for the United States, although results vary significantly by country. Source: Latinobarómetro 2026.
From Brazil to the Midwest: Soybeans Show How Competition Is Changing
For American farmers, Brazil is at the center of this transformation. Brazilian agribusiness exports reached a record $169.2 billion in 2025, with China purchasing $55.3 billion, or 32.7% of the total. The United States accounted for $11.4 billion. Brazil's 2024/25 grain harvest also reached a record 352.2 million metric tons (MMT), up 17% from the previous season. That scale means Chinese buying decisions can influence prices, export premiums and trade flows closely watched by U.S. farmers and grain companies.
Soybeans provide perhaps the clearest example. On September 28, China announced tariff reductions covering a broad range of U.S. agricultural products, including corn, wheat, sorghum, vegetable oils, meat and dairy. Soybeans, however, were excluded and continue to face an additional 10% tariff. That distinction is particularly important for U.S. agriculture because soybeans remain a major export to China and compete directly with supplies from Brazil and Argentina.
Brazil's expanding soybean production and export capacity has strengthened its role as a major supplier to China and a key competitor in global oilseed markets.
A tariff advantage for South American soybeans, however, does not automatically translate into stronger sales. Chinese soybean demand has recently been pressured by weak animal-feed consumption, poor crushing margins and high inventories. At the same time, private Chinese processors have found Brazilian and Argentine soybeans competitively priced compared with U.S. cargoes. For grain markets, the outcome depends on much more than tariffs: FOB prices, freight rates, oil content, seasonal availability and domestic crushing economics all shape purchasing decisions.
The broader U.S.-China trade environment is also changing. Washington and Beijing recently agreed to pursue reciprocal tariff reductions covering $60 billion worth of goods, including some agricultural products. Yet the exclusion of soybeans from China's latest tariff reductions illustrates how uneven those changes can be across commodities. For U.S. producers and traders, shifts in market access can quickly alter the relative competitiveness of American, Brazilian and Argentine supplies.
U.S. farmers remain exposed to shifts in Chinese agricultural demand, tariffs and competition from South American suppliers.
Competition extends well beyond grains and oilseeds. Brazil is also a major animal-protein exporter, while Pacific-facing Latin American countries have developed sophisticated high-value fruit industries. For the United States, these supply chains can represent competition, seasonal complementarity and commercial integration, depending on the product. That is why the changing relationship between China and Latin American agriculture cannot be reduced to a single winner or loser: phytosanitary requirements, trade agreements, harvest calendars and logistics differ substantially across commodities and countries.
Peru illustrates that diversification. Between January and September 2025, the country exported $338 million in agricultural goods to China, with $210 million shipped through the new Port of Chancay. Agricultural goods represented 57% of the value exported through the terminal, led by blueberries, avocados, grapes and mandarins. The numbers show how Latin America's relationship with China is expanding beyond traditional bulk commodities into higher-value food supply chains.
Latin America's agricultural relationship with China increasingly extends beyond bulk commodities into high-value products such as blueberries, avocados and grapes.
China vs. U.S.: Positive Perceptions Across Selected Latin American Markets
| Country | China Positive | U.S. Positive |
|---|---|---|
| Peru | 72% | 62% |
| El Salvador | 72% | 64% |
| Chile | 70% | 46% |
| Ecuador | 71% | 68% |
| Colombia | 69% | 60% |
| Bolivia | 63% | 59% |
| Argentina | 61% | 43% |
| Paraguay | 61% | 57% |
| Panama | 61% | 59% |
| Source: Latinobarómetro 2026. |
Ports, Costs and Markets: Why the Shift Matters for U.S. Agriculture
One of the most important changes is taking place far from the farm: the logistics infrastructure connecting South America with Asia is expanding. From January through September 2025, 62% of Peru's agricultural exports to China moved through Chancay, which began operations in November 2024. China accounted for 78% of all exports shipped through the terminal during that period. For U.S. agriculture, Chancay offers a concrete example of how new infrastructure can strengthen South America's trans-Pacific connectivity and potentially affect freight costs and delivery times for competing products.
Infrastructure remains a challenge for South American agricultural giants as well. Record production does not automatically mean maximum export competitiveness. Roads, railways, waterways, storage capacity and port efficiency determine how quickly and cheaply crops can move from inland production areas to international buyers. For U.S. farmers and agribusinesses, monitoring improvements in Brazilian and Latin American infrastructure can therefore be nearly as important as watching planted area, yields and crop forecasts.
The Port of Chancay has emerged as a new logistics gateway connecting Peruvian exports with Asian markets.
The shift also does not mean China is replacing the United States across Latin America. The region's trade structure is highly diverse. Mexico is deeply integrated with the United States and Canada through the USMCA, while Central America and the Caribbean maintain important commercial ties with the U.S. market. Several South American economies, by contrast, have developed much stronger trade exposure to China. Latinobarómetro reflects some of that variation: U.S. positive perception reaches 79% in the Dominican Republic, while in Mexico China records 65% compared with 33% for the United States.
For U.S. farmers, that distinction matters because Latin America is not simply an agricultural competitor. Mexico and other countries are major buyers of U.S. farm products, while regional supply chains are connected through trade, food processing and logistics. What has changed is China's economic depth in parts of a region that is also central to the U.S. agricultural trade system. That adds another variable for farmers, exporters and agribusinesses evaluating market access, commodity demand and long-term investment.
Developments in South American production, logistics and Chinese demand increasingly form part of the same global market equation facing U.S. agriculture.
For U.S. agriculture, the key issue is not deciding whether China or the United States is "winning" Latin America. The measurable shift is more specific: China has deepened its commercial ties with South America, Brazil has reached enormous scale as an agricultural supplier, and new infrastructure is strengthening links between Latin American producers and Asian buyers. At the same time, the United States retains extensive agricultural and commercial relationships throughout the region and remains a central supplier to global food markets.
For American farmers, traders and agribusiness companies, watching Brazil, Argentina, Peru and other Latin American markets is no longer simply about tracking distant competitors. A record Brazilian crop, a Chinese tariff change, weaker crushing margins, a new port or a shift in freight costs can influence prices and trade opportunities in the United States. In an increasingly interconnected agricultural market, competition for Chinese demand is being shaped both in the American Midwest and across the farms, ports and export corridors of Latin America.
