U.S. grain futures moved sharply lower early Friday, Sept. 25, after Thursday's meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping produced no announcement of major new purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities. December corn approached a five-week low, while soybeans and wheat also retreated. The reaction matters for farmers because the recent grain rally had increased expectations that renewed Chinese demand could support commodity prices during harvest, when expanding supplies typically put additional pressure on cash markets.

December corn fell roughly 11 cents in overnight trading to about $5.17 per bushel, after touching its lowest intraday level since Aug. 25. The contract has now retreated more than 32 cents, or approximately 6%, from the three-year high reached Sept. 2. November soybeans dropped more than 16 cents toward $13 per bushel, while December Chicago SRW wheat lost more than 18 cents. The declines showed how quickly trade expectations have become a key variable for U.S. farm income, marketing decisions and harvest-season cash flow.

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The Trump-Xi meeting did provide one element of trade stability: the United States and China agreed to extend their existing trade truce for another two months, through January. However, the talks did not produce announcements of major additional purchases of U.S. corn, soybeans or wheat. Uncertainty also remains around agricultural commitments previously discussed between Washington and Beijing, leaving grain traders focused on actual sales and shipments rather than expectations surrounding future trade agreements.

USDA data added pressure to the market. Net U.S. corn sales for 2026-27 totaled 838,300 metric tons in the week ended Sept. 17, down 18% from the previous week. Marketing-year commitments reached 718 million bushels, 29% below the comparable year-earlier level. Soybean sales were even softer at 582,400 metric tons, down 66% week over week, although China remained the largest buyer with 311,800 metric tons. USDA also reported a separate private sale of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans to China.

Harvest Adds Another Risk for Corn, Soybeans and Wheat

China nevertheless remains central to the soybean outlook. Outstanding U.S. soybean sales to China for 2026-27 stood at 10.17 million metric tons as of Sept. 17, equivalent to about 373.6 million bushels. That represents roughly 41% of the 25-million-metric-ton annual purchase target cited by the White House. The market, however, is increasingly distinguishing between commitments and physical shipments as a potentially large U.S. crop approaches the supply chain and processors, elevators and co-ops adjust harvest bids.

Weather could provide some regional support to basis levels while complicating harvest. Rain across parts of the western Corn Belt is expected to delay fieldwork, particularly from the Dakotas through Nebraska, Kansas and western Iowa, while much of the eastern Corn Belt remains comparatively dry. For producers, the immediate equation now combines harvest yields, storage capacity, input costs and crop insurance considerations with export demand. With grain prices retreating from recent highs, China's next purchases and upcoming USDA export data will be closely watched for signs of whether the current weakness is temporary or extends deeper into harvest.