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E15 Fight Puts Pressure on Thune as Ethanol Industry Demands Senate Action

Ethanol producers say strong margins, farmer pressure and cheaper E15 make Senate inaction harder to defend as the election calendar narrows.

Emily Trask
Emily Trask is a U.S.-based journalist covering agricultural trade, policy, and agri-food markets, with a focus on U.S.-Latin America relations and their impact on global agribusiness.

MINNEAPOLIS - U.S. ethanol producers and farmers intensified pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Thursday, Aug. 20, as permanent nationwide year-round E15 legislation remains stalled in the Senate despite House action. At the American Coalition for Ethanol's annual conference in Minneapolis, South Dakota farmer and ACE President Troy Knecht argued that the delay matters because expanded E15 sales could strengthen corn demand, improve rural economic activity and provide motorists with a lower-cost fuel option at a time when farm margins remain under pressure.

Knecht's frustration carries an added political dimension because Thune represents South Dakota, one of the states most closely tied to the corn and ethanol economy. The farmer recalled Thune's criticism more than two decades ago of then-Sen. Tom Daschle over failure to advance the Renewable Fuel Standard, drawing a direct comparison with today's E15 stalemate. For ethanol advocates, the message is that Senate leadership now has an opportunity to deliver a long-sought policy victory for the Upper Midwest and rural America. With the midterm elections approaching, the legislative calendar is becoming increasingly important.

The pressure comes at an unusual moment for the biofuels industry. According to Knecht, ethanol economics are currently working for producers, fuel marketers, agriculture and consumers, while the annual ethanol blend rate has reached about 11.25%. He also pointed to improving corn prices and consumer fuel savings as reasons lawmakers should move. Yet many farmers continue to confront a difficult combination of relatively weak commodity prices and elevated input costs. That squeeze on profitability has made policies capable of generating additional domestic corn demand increasingly relevant alongside crop insurance, farm bill programs and other agricultural safety-net measures.

Refinery Dispute Complicates the Path to Permanent Year-Round E15

ACE CEO Brian Jennings said the lack of Senate movement is particularly difficult for the industry to understand because E15 has attracted bipartisan backing. He noted that gasoline prices remain stubbornly high while farmer returns are still challenged by the gap between commodity prices and production expenses. Ethanol supporters contend that year-round E15 could address both sides of that equation by expanding a market for corn while giving consumers access to a fuel blend that can be priced below conventional options. For the broader U.S. agricultural supply chain, greater ethanol consumption could also influence basis levels, grain movement and demand around ethanol plants.

The House has already approved an E15 approach that includes relief for refiners under the Renewable Fuel Standard, including protections related to the reallocation of gallons waived through small-refinery exemptions. Jonathan Lehman, ACE's chief consultant and policy adviser, said assembling the House majority was a significant achievement, but the political arithmetic is different in the Senate. The central negotiation increasingly pits agricultural and biofuel interests against refining-sector concerns. Key leadership roles held by senators representing states with different energy and agricultural priorities make finding a compromise more complicated.

Time is another major constraint. Lehman said senators have only 14 working days remaining before the election, increasing pressure on lawmakers seeking legislative victories to take home to voters. He believes a path remains available, but described it primarily as a political challenge requiring Senate leadership to push opposing interests toward compromise. For farmers and co-ops across the Corn Belt, that shrinking window raises the stakes. A permanent E15 framework would provide greater regulatory certainty to fuel retailers, ethanol plants and corn producers, while another delay could extend uncertainty into future planting, marketing and investment decisions.

ACE Chief Marketing Officer Ron Lamberty questioned whether demands surrounding small-refinery exemptions should continue blocking nationwide E15. He cited Sinclair Refining Company as an example, saying the company generated about $330 million from sales of Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs, during the fourth quarter of last year. His argument is that refinery economics and compliance mechanisms complicate claims that additional ethanol blending creates an unmanageable burden. The RFS dispute remains critical because decisions involving exemptions, waived gallons and RIN values can ultimately affect ethanol demand and the economics flowing back through the corn supply chain.

Retail economics may also strengthen the industry's case. Lamberty said the wholesale price difference between E10 and E15 was generally 2 to 7 cents per gallon last year, but has recently widened to at least 15 cents in many markets and sometimes 20 cents. That spread can create an incentive for compatible fuel stations to sell E15 while potentially passing part of the savings to drivers. Because E15 is approved for roughly 95% of vehicles on U.S. roads, advocates believe expanded availability could accelerate adoption. The combination of retailer margins, consumer savings and additional ethanol demand is becoming the industry's strongest argument for congressional action.

For U.S. agriculture, the debate reaches well beyond the fuel pump. Corn used for ethanol represents a major source of domestic commodity demand, supporting farmers, grain handlers, transportation networks and rural processing facilities. Permanent year-round E15 would not erase pressure from input costs, interest rates or volatile commodity prices, but supporters view it as a market-based tool capable of strengthening demand without relying solely on direct farm assistance. The immediate question is whether Senate leaders can bridge the refinery-agriculture divide before the election calendar closes the window for action - and whether Thune will use his leadership position to push E15 across the finish line.

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