Chinese President Xi Jinping's return to India for the BRICS summit beginning Saturday, Sept. 12, will put one of Asia's most consequential relationships under scrutiny. Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to meet as Beijing and New Delhi cautiously rebuild ties damaged by deadly border clashes in 2020. The encounter matters well beyond Asia: China and India are two of the world's largest economies, and decisions involving trade, investment and supply chains could reverberate across global commodity markets and U.S. business interests.

A $112 Billion Trade Gap Hangs Over the Modi-Xi Meeting

Trade may prove just as difficult as the disputed Himalayan border. China is India's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching a record $151.1 billion in the year ended March 2026. But India's trade deficit with China also climbed to a record $112.16 billion, sharpening New Delhi's push for greater market access. India remains dependent on Chinese supplies in strategic industries including batteries, while both governments are protecting sectors considered critical to their economic security and global supply chains.

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The summit arrives as India continues pursuing what analysts describe as strategic hedging, strengthening relationships with multiple global powers rather than aligning exclusively with one bloc. New Delhi's relations with Washington have faced pressure over trade and tariffs, while ties with Beijing have shown signs of improvement through resumed direct flights, border trade and cross-border exchanges. Still, territorial disputes and commercial mistrust remain unresolved, making the Modi-Xi meeting an important test of whether the diplomatic thaw can translate into lasting economic cooperation.