U.S.-Mexico Water Dispute Sees Progress, But Texas Farmers Still at Risk
New delivery agreement brings partial relief, but treaty shortfall leaves South Texas agriculture in crisis amid drought and irrigation cuts.
After years of drought and shortfalls in Mexico's water deliveries under the 1944 Water Treaty, the U.S. and Mexico have reached a preliminary agreement to release 202,000 acre-feet of Rio Grande water, providing partial relief to South Texas farmers. The move follows mounting pressure from agricultural groups and threats of tariffs from the Trump administration.
Texas farmers like Mike England have watched their operations shrink, with acreage cut, debts rising, and crop selection limited by lack of irrigation water. "Each year you farm without water, you're going that much further into the hole," England said, emphasizing that crop insurance offers little reprieve.
The Rio Grande's 1,885-mile course is essential to both U.S. and Mexican agriculture, and the 1944 treaty mandates Mexico deliver 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. every five years. But when the 2020-2025 cycle ended on October 25, Mexico had delivered just 884,861 acre-feet-barely half its obligation.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed that deliveries will begin immediately, citing cooperation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who pledged to support the U.S. without harming Mexican agricultural needs. Still, Rollins warned that tariffs remain an option if Mexico fails to uphold the treaty: "The U.S. reserves the right and will impose 5% tariffs on Mexican products."
Historically, Mexico has relied on seasonal rainstorms to refill reservoirs and meet treaty terms near each cycle's end. But prolonged droughts and increased domestic use have made that strategy untenable. "Mexico has banked on the weather forever. That is the problem," said water expert Carlos Rubenstein.
The result has been a persistent delivery deficit: Mexico has failed to meet obligations in three of the last seven treaty cycles, paying back water debts in subsequent periods. The lack of a clear definition for "extraordinary drought" in the treaty has complicated enforcement.
Farmers in the Lower Rio Grande Valley have been hit hardest. A 2024 Texas A&M report projected losses of $993.2 million from irrigation shortfalls. In 2024, the last sugar mill in Texas shut down, driven by water scarcity and declining sugar cane yields. Acreage for cotton, milo, and citrus has also plummeted.
Dale Murden, president of Texas Citrus Mutual, said citrus orchards are "on the brink of disaster." Even with average rainfall, trees are only receiving half the irrigation they need to survive, let alone produce fruit. "You can't turn the orchards on and off," he warned.
In response, a coalition of Texas producers has called for tougher treaty enforcement mechanisms. Wallace Webb, of the Cotton and Grain Producers of the Lower Rio Grande Valley, urged that full compliance with the treaty be tied to USMCA trade terms, including penalties for non-compliance.
Earlier this year, the USDA provided $280 million in aid to help offset water-related losses, but farmers say the assistance is not enough to avoid long-term damage. "It's not the healing we thought it was going to be," said England.
Despite recent progress, the Rio Grande water dispute underscores broader vulnerabilities in U.S.-Mexico water diplomacy and highlights the urgent need for modern treaty enforcement, climate adaptation, and infrastructure investment.
