U.S. fertilizer prices moved higher again during the third full week of September 2026, led by anhydrous ammonia at an average $977 per ton, up 6% from a month earlier and 25% from a year ago. All eight major fertilizers monitored in the U.S. retail market are now more expensive than they were a year earlier. The increase matters because fertilizer is becoming one of the fastest-growing production expenses in U.S. agriculture, tightening crop margins and forcing corn and other row-crop producers to reassess nutrient purchases, application strategies and 2027 production budgets.

The pressure extends well beyond anhydrous. DAP averaged $926 per ton, MAP $970, potash $498 and urea $675, while liquid UAN28 averaged $423 and UAN32 $479. On a year-over-year basis, urea was 9% higher, MAP and 10-34-0 increased 5%, DAP rose 3%, potash gained 2%, and UAN28 and UAN32 were approximately 1% more expensive. The fact that every major fertilizer category is above year-ago levels makes this a broader input-cost challenge, particularly for operations managing narrow margins and significant nutrient requirements.

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Current U.S. retail fertilizer prices

The latest increase does not mean fertilizer prices have returned to their spring peaks. Anhydrous averaged $1,118 per ton in early May before declining to $923 in late August, then rebounding to $977 in September. Urea followed a similar trajectory, reaching $865 per ton in May, falling to $655 in late August and recovering to $675. That distinction is important for purchasing decisions: several fertilizers have corrected substantially from their 2026 highs, but that relief has not been enough to eliminate the year-over-year increase. Farmers are entering fall planning with prices below spring peaks but still above 2025 levels.

Fertilizer Inflation Adds Pressure to U.S. Farm Margins Ahead of 2027

The fertilizer market is becoming especially important because higher nutrient costs are colliding with an already challenging farm-income environment. USDA's September forecast projects U.S. farm production expenses at $492.8 billion in 2026, up $21.4 billion, or 4.5%, from 2025. Fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner expenses are expected to post one of the sharpest increases, climbing approximately $5.3 billion, or 15.3%. At the same time, USDA projects inflation-adjusted net farm income to decline 5.5%, reinforcing the pressure that higher input bills can exert on producer margins.

That combination has particular implications for corn because nitrogen represents a major variable production expense, and application rates can materially affect both yields and profitability. Comparing fertilizer solely by price per ton, however, can be misleading. Current retail values put anhydrous at approximately $0.60 per pound of nitrogen, compared with $0.73 for urea, $0.76 for UAN28 and $0.74 for UAN32. Despite its 25% year-over-year price increase, anhydrous remains the lowest-cost nitrogen source per pound of N among these four products, although application costs, equipment, timing, agronomic requirements and regional availability also influence farm-level economics.

Nitrogen cost comparison

Energy markets add another layer to the story. Natural gas is a critical feedstock in ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing, yet recent U.S. gas prices alone do not explain the magnitude of fertilizer inflation. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub natural gas averaged about $2.93 per MMBtu from June through August 2026, roughly 6% below the same period in 2025. The divergence indicates that the fertilizer market is being influenced by a broader mix of global supply conditions, international trade flows, production disruptions, transportation costs and geopolitical risks rather than simply higher domestic feedstock prices.

Global nitrogen availability therefore remains a key variable heading into 2027. Industry assessments point to a relatively constrained international nitrogen balance following production and trade disruptions affecting commercially available urea and ammonia during 2026. That matters directly to U.S. producers because fertilizer is a globally traded commodity, meaning disruptions overseas can influence replacement costs, import economics and domestic wholesale and retail values even when natural gas remains comparatively affordable inside the United States.

Potash presents a different vulnerability. U.S. Geological Survey data indicate that the United States remains roughly 92% net import reliant for potash, with Canada accounting for the dominant share of U.S. imports in recent years. That dependence gives added significance to Canpotex's planned C$500 million modernization of its export infrastructure at Neptune Bulk Terminals in Vancouver. The project includes new ship loaders, conveyors and terminal infrastructure and is expected to be completed in 2028 without disrupting shipments, strengthening an important logistical corridor supplying the North American fertilizer market.

The scale of U.S. exposure to international fertilizer supply chains extends beyond potash. USDA transportation data show that the country imported 42.2 million short tons of fertilizer products in 2024, including approximately 15.4 million tons of potash, 5.2 million tons of urea, 2.4 million tons of UAN and 2.3 million tons of anhydrous ammonia. Those figures represent the structural trade picture rather than current 2026 import volumes, but they illustrate why port capacity, freight costs, export policies, sanctions and overseas production disruptions can ultimately affect fertilizer prices paid by U.S. farmers and agricultural co-ops.

For growers, the central issue heading toward the 2027 crop cycle will be the relationship between commodity prices, expected yields and fertilizer cost per acre, rather than fertilizer prices in isolation. Corn acreage and nitrogen demand, global urea and ammonia availability, natural gas prices, import flows and fall application conditions will influence purchasing decisions. Precision agriculture, soil testing, variable-rate technology and nutrient management can help improve input efficiency, but they cannot completely insulate farms from sustained fertilizer inflation when crop revenue and operating margins are under pressure.

The September market therefore sends a mixed signal. Prices have retreated substantially from some of their spring highs, providing relief compared with the most expensive point of 2026. Yet every major fertilizer tracked in the U.S. retail market remains more expensive than a year ago, while USDA expects fertilizer-related expenditures to increase much faster than overall production expenses. For farmers preparing 2027 crop budgets and evaluating when to lock in inputs, the key question is increasingly whether commodity prices and yields will generate enough revenue to absorb those costs without another squeeze on margins.