The USDA on September 11 lowered its 2026/27 U.S. corn yield forecast by 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5 bpa, cutting expected production by 213 million bushels in its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The revision matters for U.S. farmers because it reduces projected corn ending stocks at a time when exports remain strong, potentially tightening the domestic balance sheet and supporting commodity prices as harvest advances. Soybeans moved in the opposite direction, with USDA slightly raising both yield and production.

Corn production is now forecast at 15.8 billion bushels, down from 16.013 billion in August, while harvested acreage slipped fractionally to 88.5 million acres. The earlier report reviewed by our newsroom adds that planted acreage was estimated at 96.8 million acres. Despite the production cut, USDA kept 2026/27 corn exports at 3.275 billion bushels, while reducing feed and residual use by 150 million bushels to 5.95 billion. That combination leaves the U.S. market with less supply, but also somewhat lower domestic consumption.

Biologicals

Biologicals Gain Ground in Latin America, but Where Do They Really Fit in the Grower's Toolbox?

U.S. Corn: September WASDE Changes

The most consequential figure for producers may be ending stocks. USDA reduced projected 2026/27 corn carryout to 1.567 billion bushels, down 86 million from August, while beginning stocks were also lowered by 23 million bushels, largely because of stronger exports in the previous marketing year. USDA simultaneously raised its projected season-average farm price by 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel. For growers managing input costs, crop insurance decisions and post-harvest marketing, that combination strengthens the case for closely watching basis levels, export demand and storage economics.

The global corn balance is tightening as well. USDA projected 2026/27 world ending stocks at 272.1 million metric tons, down from 274.7 million in August. Global production was reduced to roughly 1.291 billion metric tons. The previous material also puts Brazil's 2025/26 corn crop at 141 million metric tons and Argentina's at 63 million, while Ukraine's 2026/27 crop was projected at 31.8 million. Those numbers increase the importance of international supply conditions for U.S. commodity prices and export competitiveness.

U.S. 2026/27 Ending Stocks

Soybeans delivered a different production signal. USDA increased the national yield by 0.1 bushel to 52.8 bushels per acre and lifted production by 16 million bushels to a record 4.535 billion bushels. Harvested acreage rose to 85.9 million acres. Yet the larger crop did not translate into higher carryout because USDA also increased projected exports by 25 million bushels to approximately 1.685 billion, pushing 2026/27 ending stocks down to 310 million bushels. The projected farm price increased from $11.40 in August to $12 per bushel.

U.S. Crop Production and Yield

Wheat offered comparatively little change domestically. USDA maintained U.S. 2026/27 production at 1.531 billion bushels, ending stocks at 717 million and exports at 775 million bushels. However, the projected farm price increased to $6.40 per bushel from $6.20. Globally, wheat ending stocks climbed to 276.3 million metric tons. The international picture included lower projected Russian production and exports but higher output forecasts for Australia, Canada and Ukraine, adding another layer to competition facing U.S. grain in the global supply chain.

The immediate market response showed why a fundamentally supportive report does not automatically produce a broad rally. According to market commentary included in the second report, much of the adjustment had already been anticipated before WASDE. Following the release, corn was up about 1 cent, while soybeans were down 28 cents and wheat fell 17 cents. Analysts characterized shrinking U.S. and global corn inventories as constructive, but noted that traders will need additional bullish information to sustain upward momentum in commodity prices.

Attention now increasingly shifts toward South American weather and production. USDA projected Brazil's 2026/27 soybean crop at 186 million metric tons, Argentina's at 50 million and Chinese soybean imports at 115 million. With U.S. corn inventories moving lower and soybean stocks remaining relatively tight despite record production, strong crops in Brazil and Argentina could become increasingly important to the global balance sheet. For U.S. farmers, co-ops, agronomists and investors, weather developments abroad may therefore influence marketing opportunities at home well beyond the fall harvest.

Global 2026/27 Ending Stocks

Beyond grains, the September WASDE also carried signals for livestock producers that were absent from the second report but included in the earlier material. USDA reduced projected 2026 beef production by 90 million pounds and pork production by 105 million pounds. Beef imports increased by 73 million pounds amid expectations for larger shipments from South America, while beef exports rose by 2 million pounds. Pork exports, meanwhile, were reduced by 65 million pounds. Those revisions connect the grain balance sheet with feed demand, livestock margins and the broader agricultural supply chain.

For U.S. agriculture, the September report ultimately creates a more nuanced harvest outlook: less corn, tighter corn stocks and a higher projected farm price, but more soybeans alongside stronger export demand. The numbers do not guarantee a sustained rally, particularly with production risks shifting toward South America, but they narrow the margin for supply surprises. Producers will now be watching harvest yields, exports, basis, input costs and global weather closely as they make storage and marketing decisions heading deeper into the 2026/27 season.