Southern Canada Faces Growing Drought Threat Ahead of Spring Planting
Low snowpack and dry weather could impact spring crops across southern Canadian Prairies.
Southern Canadian Prairies are getting drier just as planting season approaches. From Calgary to southern Saskatchewan, snow is nearly nonexistent, and precipitation has been well below normal since November. That's raising red flags for farmers on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border.
As of early February 2026, over 60% of Canada's Prairie farmland is in abnormally dry to extreme drought, according to the North America Drought Monitor. Some areas, like Medicine Hat, typically see 12-16 cm of snow each month-but now sit at zero.
Most winter storms have been dropping snow in the north and east, missing the southern zones entirely. Clipper systems-common winter weather drivers-have favored northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and southern Manitoba, leaving key growing regions in the south dry and exposed.
The latest data from the Canadian Drought Monitor reveals areas of moderate drought scattered across the southern Canadian Prairies, where snowpack remains critically low, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
Meteorologists are watching a persistent ridge pattern over Western Canada that's expected to continue into mid-to-late February. That pattern keeps the storm track north, with limited precipitation expected through early March.
There's also the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO), which could send cold, dry air into the Prairies. The result? Poor soil moisture heading into spring.
Maybe. DTN meteorologists see signs that April could bring more moisture to parts of Saskatchewan and near the U.S. border. Still, the next 6-8 weeks are likely to increase drought stress, with little relief before planting begins.
And while El Niño could shift global patterns and bring needed rain by May, that's too late for early planting windows in the southern Prairies.
Even though this is happening in Canada, the impact could hit U.S. grain markets hard:
-
Lower canola, wheat, and barley yields could push prices up.
-
Livestock feed costs may rise if Canadian exports fall short.
-
Northern U.S. regions could see similar dry patterns due to shared atmospheric conditions.
For U.S. growers, co-ops, and ag investors, this is more than just weather-it's a supply chain warning.
