WASHINGTON - August 28, 2026. U.S. farmers entered the final stretch of the growing season Friday with heat and limited soil moisture continuing to pressure crops across the Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, according to USDA's latest Agricultural Weather Highlights. The conditions matter as corn, soybeans, cotton and sorghum move toward maturity and producers assess yield potential ahead of harvest. While showers are bringing relief to selected areas, the federal outlook points to a highly uneven moisture pattern, leaving some major agricultural regions exposed to continued late-summer stress.

The most immediate concern is concentrated across the Plains, where temperatures on August 28 were expected to approach or reach 100°F in parts of Oklahoma and Texas. USDA said pastures and numerous crops continue to struggle under late-summer heat and depleted soil moisture reserves. As of August 23, 32% of the U.S. sorghum crop and 29% of cotton were rated in very poor to poor condition, figures that underline the production risk facing growers as the season advances. Persistent dryness can also affect livestock operations by reducing pasture performance and increasing dependence on purchased feed or supplemental forage.

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Conditions are more favorable across portions of the Corn Belt, where mild and dry weather is accelerating summer crops toward maturity and helping reduce pockets of excessive soil moisture in the lower Midwest. But that improvement is far from universal. USDA reported drought continuing to hurt immature crops farther north, particularly soybeans. In North Dakota, 30% of soybeans were rated very poor to poor, while South Dakota stood at 24%, compared with a national rate of just 12%. Those disparities highlight how regional weather could remain an important variable for yields as combines move closer to the fields.

Rainfall Outlook Deepens the Divide Across U.S. Farm Country

The weather pattern is also shifting in the West. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board, within the Office of the Chief Economist, said interaction between the North American monsoon and a Northwestern cold front is temporarily increasing clouds and showers while cooler air spreads into the Pacific Northwest. At the same time, gusty winds and possible lightning are raising concerns about wildfire ignition and rapid fire expansion from parts of California toward the northern Rockies, adding another weather-related risk for agricultural and rural areas. The satellite image included on page one of the USDA report illustrates the broad cloud and storm pattern across the country early Friday.

In the South, conditions remain similarly divided. Temperatures are still elevated around the western Gulf Coast, while more seasonable weather has returned elsewhere. Locally heavy showers across the lower Southeast are improving topsoil moisture, reversing some recent deterioration, but USDA said additional rainfall is needed from the western Gulf Coast into the Mississippi Delta. That moisture would be important for stressed pastures and summer crops that have not yet reached maturity, particularly where prolonged heat and rainfall deficits have reduced available soil moisture during a critical late-season period.

USDA's five-day outlook suggests that rainfall will remain highly regional. Resurgent monsoon moisture could deliver 1 to 2 inches from parts of the Four Corners states through Montana and the Dakotas, while showers expand across the northern United States, Great Lakes and Northeast. The Southeast could receive another 1 to 3 inches or more, particularly in Florida. In contrast, mostly dry conditions are forecast from the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley, including the mid-South, with heat accompanying the dryness across the south-central United States.

The longer-range outlook offers little indication that those contrasts will disappear quickly. Based on National Weather Service forecasts, USDA said the September 1-5 period is likely to bring below-normal temperatures to northern and central California, the Great Basin and Northwest. Meanwhile, hotter-than-normal conditions are favored across parts of the Southwest and broadly from the Plains to the Atlantic Coast. Near- or below-normal rainfall is expected across the central and southern Plains, the South and much of the Midwest, while wetter-than-normal weather is favored across the northern Plains, Northeast and much of the West.

For U.S. agriculture, that divide puts additional attention on crop condition, soil moisture and final yield development heading toward harvest. The USDA report does not provide new production forecasts or quantify potential yield losses, but its condition ratings show where weather stress is already most visible. Sorghum and cotton producers on the Plains and soybean growers in the Dakotas remain particularly exposed, while timely rainfall elsewhere could stabilize pastures and immature crops. Weather through early September will therefore be a key variable for farmers and commodity markets evaluating the size and quality of the 2026 harvest.