DES MOINES, Iowa, February 11, 2026 - A shifting Pacific weather pattern from La Niña toward a potential El Niño could set the stage for strong U.S. crop yields in 2026, according to atmospheric scientist Matt Reardon, who says current signals resemble 2014 - a major bumper crop year - though drought risks remain in key regions.

Speaking at the 2026 Top Producer Summit, Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, described the coming growing season as one of "cautious optimism." For producers managing tight margins, volatile commodity prices and rising input costs, early weather signals are critical to planning acreage, crop insurance coverage and marketing strategies.

El Niño and La Niña are opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate cycle driven by temperature shifts in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. These ocean-atmosphere patterns influence precipitation and temperature trends across North America.

Historically, many U.S. farmers favor El Niño conditions because they often bring increased precipitation to key growing regions. That can support yields in corn, soybeans and wheat, though excessive rainfall may disrupt planting or cause localized flooding.

La Niña, by contrast, is frequently linked to elevated drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South - regions that play a significant role in livestock, wheat and feed production. Persistent dryness in those areas can ripple through the agricultural supply chain, affecting feed costs and livestock margins.

Reardon said forecasts point to La Niña fading quickly this spring, with the possibility of transitioning toward El Niño by summer. However, he cautioned that spring remains a "predictability horizon," meaning conditions can still shift before planting and early vegetative stages are underway.

Reardon notes similarities between early 2026 and 2014, a year widely remembered for exceptional U.S. yields. While no two seasons are identical, he said sea surface temperatures - particularly in the Northeast Pacific - are a key indicator.

In 2025, despite widespread drought concerns heading into planting, Northeast Pacific waters remained record warm. The result was generally favorable moisture across much of the Corn Belt, with strong yields in many regions.

By comparison, cooler Pacific waters in 2023 corresponded with increased drought pressure in parts of the country.

"As those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go," Reardon explained.

If moisture patterns develop favorably through spring and early summer, the setup could support above-trend yields, potentially easing pressure on domestic feed markets and influencing global commodity prices.

Despite the optimistic tilt, drought remains a concern - particularly in the Southern Plains. The latest USDA Drought Monitor shows areas of overwinter dryness, a pattern that has become more common over the past decade.

Grass fires were reported in parts of the Southern Plains in early February, underscoring the region's vulnerability. While some precipitation is forecast in the short term, the area remains highly sensitive to spring rainfall deficits.

Historically, major drought years such as 2006 and 2012 saw dryness intensify first in the Mid-South or Southeast during April and May before spreading northward into the Corn Belt. That pattern can become yield-robbing if sustained through pollination in June and July.

For now, near-term forecasts call for moisture over the next 10 days, which could stabilize soil profiles ahead of planting.

For row crop farmers finalizing seed decisions and livestock producers monitoring feed outlooks, early-season weather direction carries significant financial implications. A high-yield environment could rebuild grain stocks and soften commodity prices, while drought flare-ups would quickly shift market sentiment.

With farm bill discussions ongoing and lenders closely watching working capital levels across the countryside, weather remains the single largest uncontrollable variable in farm profitability.

Reardon's message to producers: optimism is warranted - but vigilance is essential.