Hurricane Erin Explodes into Category 4, Expected to Grow Even Larger
Hurricane Erin has rapidly strengthened into a Category 4 with 145 mph winds and could double or triple in size, threatening dangerous surf and flooding.
Hurricane Erin intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 145 mph Category 4 hurricane in just 24 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm is now located about 150 miles northeast of Anguilla, passing just north of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Though a direct landfall in the northeastern Caribbean is unlikely, the system is already unleashing gusty winds, rough surf, and bands of heavy rainfall. Some areas could receive 2 to 6 inches of rain, with flash flooding and mudslides possible.
Forecast Path and Risks
Erin is projected to track northward over the western Atlantic next week. Current models suggest it will stay away from the U.S. mainland and Bermuda, but meteorologists caution that a slight shift in trajectory could bring stronger impacts. Even if the storm holds its current path, dangerous rip currents and rough seas will affect coastal areas.
The U.S. Coast Guard closed multiple ports in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to inbound traffic as a precaution.
Fueled by Warm Waters
Meteorologists warn that Erin could at least double or triple in size over the coming days, driven by above-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures. These conditions are providing ample fuel for rapid intensification.
Rapid intensification, defined as a wind speed increase of 35 mph or more within 24 hours, is becoming more common. In 2024, nine Atlantic storms underwent this explosive strengthening, a trend scientists link to climate change and warmer oceans.
Forecast issued: 10:20 a.m. ET on August 15, 2025
Note: Values derived from five-kilometer satellite sea surface temperature anomalies data.
The First Major Hurricane of 2025
Erin is the Atlantic's first major hurricane of the season, following four weaker storms - Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter. Typically, the first hurricane forms around August 11, making Erin slightly later than average.
Still, forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this season, with August through October marking the peak of hurricane season. The Climate Prediction Center is monitoring the same Atlantic region where Erin developed for potential new storms heading into September.
