The 2026 U.S. Drought Monitor opens the year with troubling news for agriculture: five major corn-producing states-Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Texas and Colorado-are now experiencing D3 (extreme) or D4 (exceptional) drought, a significant escalation in dryness compared to January 2025.

In Illinois, more than 5% of the state is under extreme drought, with over 14% in severe drought and more than half of the state in moderate drought. Just 2% remains free of moisture stress, a sharp contrast to the beginning of last year when over 50% of the state was moisture-stress free and the worst drought classification was only D1 moderate.

Indiana shows a similar trend. Over 9% of the state is facing D3 conditions, nearly 17% is in D2 severe drought, and 10% is in D1 moderate drought. Less than a third of the state is free from dryness. This represents a stark deterioration from January 2025, when nearly half of Indiana showed no drought and extreme classifications were virtually absent.

Ohio is seeing worsening conditions, especially in its northwest. Over 7% of the state is experiencing D3 extreme drought, with additional dry areas scattered across the central and eastern counties. More than 70% of Ohio is still free of drought, but that's down from 73% last year, and the footprint of severe stress is growing.

In the south, Texas is already reporting D4 exceptional drought in nearly 1% of the state, with 9% in D3 extreme, 18% in D2 severe, and nearly 30% in D1 moderate drought. These numbers mark a major shift from the start of 2025 when 37% of the state had normal soil moisture. Although corn isn't as dominant here, the drought raises red flags for the broader cropping system, including sorghum and cotton.

In Colorado, less than 1% is in D4 exceptional drought, but D3 and D2 drought now cover more than 14% of the state combined. Another 30% faces moderate drought, and just 26% remains moisture-stress free-a sharp drop from last year's 71%. The growing dryness could impact both irrigated and dryland acres in the High Plains.

The spread of these intense drought classifications poses challenges for crop insurance planning, soil management, irrigation readiness, and nutrient strategies. With soil moisture already compromised, growers may face tougher decisions on spring fieldwork and planting. These conditions also add uncertainty to commodity market expectations, with drought-driven yield risk potentially supporting price volatility in the months ahead.

For producers, the road to spring 2026 now starts in a drier place. USDA, co-ops, and ag advisors will play a key role in helping farmers navigate this stress through precision agriculture tools, sustainable practices, and early risk management. The resilience of the Corn Belt will once again be tested by climate volatility.