As summer transitions into fall, U.S. corn and soybean producers are finally getting a break. Though early-season forecasts signaled widespread Midwest dryness, reality has diverged: only 5% of corn acres and 9% of soybeans acres are currently experiencing drought. In contrast, several other crops are taking a hit-52% of barley, 49% of rice, 31% of wheat, along with significant shares of cotton and sugarbeet, face more severe drought stress.

Agricultural economists eyeing these data point to a strong performance for corn and soybeans: Pro Farmer's Crop Tour estimates average yields at 182.7 bushels per acre for corn and 53 bushels per acre for soybeans. These numbers may bolster farmer incomes and provide breathing room on input costs, even as commodity prices remain sensitive to supply-chain ripples and global demand.

The USDA Pro Farmer Tour results underscore the relative advantage of corn and soybeans in this year's farm economy, offering optimism as the farm bill discussion heats up. Yet, the broader drought outlook still carries risks-especially for rice in the Mississippi River Valley, where dry conditions now span parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi. Forecaster Jack Van Meter warns that prolonged dryness may lower Mississippi River water levels, posing challenges to navigation and export logistics.

Looking at weather patterns, the NOAA's 6-10 day outlook signals cooler-than-normal temperatures across the Midwest through the end of August and into early September. This could support grain fill for corn and soybeans. Meanwhile, rainfall is expected to expand-first sweeping across Oklahoma and the Rocky Mountains, then moving into the Southeast, potentially bringing welcome moisture to parts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

But caution remains warranted. The National Drought Monitor paints a more mixed picture: nationally, 26.8% of U.S. territory and nearly 32% of the lower 48 states are experiencing drought as of mid-August, affecting around 74 million acres of major crops. These conditions reflect lingering pressure on crops like rice, wheat, and cotton-sectors less equipped with crop insurance or diversified irrigation systems.

Importantly, the ENSO-neutral forecast from the Climate Prediction Center suggests a relatively stable atmospheric pattern could persist through the summer and fall. That may promote easing of drought in some areas while allowing dryness to linger elsewhere. The summer outlook, however, still leans toward above-normal temperatures, especially in the interior West and parts of Texas, with below-normal precipitation probable across the Upper Mississippi and Central Plains.

Policy and Market Implications:

• Farm Economy Relief: Solid corn and soybean yields could improve farmer liquidity, enabling reinvestment in precision agriculture technologies, sustainable practices, and better crop insurance coverage.

• Policy Focus Reset: As other crops falter, legislators may need to re-prioritize drought response funding, especially for sectors like rice and wheat. Supply chain resilience, from grain elevators to ports, could become a hotter ag-policy debate.

• Risk Management: Farmers lacking irrigation or coping with input cost inflation may seek expanded USDA support or co-op strategies to manage risk and maintain productivity.

Corn and soybeans emerge as this summer's standout crops, outpacing drought-afflicted counterparts across the U.S. Yet, uneven moisture, regional drought persistence, and high heat pockets underscore the fragility of the farm sector. With cooler temperatures and hopeful rain on the horizon, the final weeks of summer may yet shape the season's story-one of resilience, adaptation, or renewed stress.