More than a quarter of the United States is currently under drought conditions, yet the national crop picture is far from bleak. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor as of June 24, 2025, approximately 25.83% of the U.S. and Puerto Rico are experiencing some degree of drought. However, this headline figure belies the complex regional disparities shaping the current agricultural season.

In western Kansas, Ron Suppes, a seasoned wheat grower near Dighton, offers a perspective shaped by a decade of praying for rain. This season, his prayers were finally answered-perhaps too well. "I'm not going to stop praying, but we've had enough rain that it's kept us from finishing wheat harvest," Suppes shared. Despite delays, he remains optimistic. Early July conditions have been favorable for corn, soybeans, grain sorghum, and pastures. Yet even he acknowledges that crops in Iowa appear to be outperforming those in his region.

Iowa's growing season is off to a strong start. The USDA's Crop Progress Report this week rated 85% of the state's corn and 77% of its soybeans as good to excellent. Mitchell Hora, a farmer in Washington County, Iowa, captured the sentiment with two words: "It's beautiful."

Nationally, USDA-NASS reports 73% of corn and 66% of soybean crops in good-to-excellent condition. Much of this success is attributed to unexpectedly favorable weather. Concerns about a drought gripping the central Midwest have not materialized. Meteorologist Drew Lerner notes that, contrary to earlier predictions, significant rainfall has arrived across the southern Plains, Delta, and Tennessee River Basin.

The USDA Agricultural Weather Highlights released on July 2 point to a "lull in an overall wet pattern" that currently benefits corn and soybean development. Most early-planted crops are entering reproductive stages without major stress, supported by adequate soil moisture across much of the Corn Belt.

Still, not all crops are faring equally. The June 24 drought report shows 16% of corn acres, 12% of soybean acres, and 3% of cotton acres under drought. More concerning are durum wheat (39%), barley (29%), spring wheat (25%), and winter wheat (20%)-all showing substantial exposure to dry conditions.

The northern High Plains are experiencing worsening drought, particularly impacting rangelands and pastures. Montana leads this category, with 47% of its rangelands rated in very poor to poor condition as of June 29. In the West, persistent heat and dry weather have left the region vulnerable to wildfires. USDA cautions that dry thunderstorms could ignite new fires from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies.

In the southern U.S., the story is mixed. Scattered rainfall has kept pastures in Alabama, Kentucky, and North Carolina rated at least 80% good to excellent. However, frequent rains have hindered fieldwork in parts of the region, delaying planting and harvesting activities.

Looking ahead, July is shaping up to be hotter and drier for much of the Central Plains. John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com projects temperature anomalies of four to five degrees above normal in areas of Kansas and Nebraska. Surrounding regions, including parts of Iowa and the Dakotas, may also see temperatures two to three degrees above average.

Further east, including states like Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio, temperatures are expected to remain closer to normal, reducing concerns for extended heat stress. "The concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July," says Hoomenuk.

In sum, while drought persists in key regions, notably the High Plains and West, strong early-season crop conditions across the Midwest and South paint a more nuanced picture. Producers must remain attentive to local conditions and forecasts as the heart of the growing season unfolds.