A transition from La Niña to El Niño is underway in early 2026, and forecasters say this evolving climate pattern will be a defining force in the upcoming U.S. growing season. According to DTN meteorologist John Baranick, while conditions may trend toward more favorable weather for much of the country, significant uncertainty remains. Drought, delayed planting, and uneven precipitation could spell challenges for some growers even as others benefit.

The change in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is expected to push global weather into more variable patterns. After a brief but potent La Niña phase in late 2025, warming Pacific Ocean waters are forecast to return the system to ENSO-neutral by spring. If warming continues, a mild to moderate El Niño may develop this summer - a shift that typically brings frequent storms, moderate temperatures, and more rainfall across much of the Corn Belt.

"2026 is shaping up to be one of those ‘in-between' years," Baranick said. "Patterns won't lock in early, and that opens the door to volatility - and opportunity."

While the trend toward El Niño may eventually support moisture recovery, the first half of 2026 begins with lingering drought across key crop areas. As of Jan. 6:

• 32% of corn acres

• 38% of soybean acres

• 42% of winter wheat acres

...were experiencing some form of drought. While dry soils can speed up planting, growers will need adequate early-season rainfall to ensure crop establishment.

So far, winter weather has been mixed. Record cold and snowfall in November and December gave way to unseasonably warm, dry conditions in January, melting snowpack and exposing soils. Baranick notes that a shifting storm track - running from Texas through the Northeast - may bring needed moisture to central and eastern states, potentially easing drought stress before planting.

However, there's a caveat: Too much moisture in the same areas could create waterlogged soils, leading to delayed fieldwork and poor root conditions. Northern states may also face late frosts, as residual La Niña energy could send cold air into May, posing a risk to early-planted crops.

The outlook for summer depends on how quickly El Niño forms and how strong it becomes. A gradual transition is more likely to keep weather active and variable, with frequent thunderstorm clusters, fewer prolonged heatwaves, and generally near-normal rainfall.

DTN favors this scenario, drawing comparisons to 2023, when a "Super El Niño" developed later in the year. That season brought regional yield variability but allowed crops in key I-states (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio) to perform relatively well despite early-season drought.

In 2026, similar risks apply. If El Niño locks in too early and strongly, precipitation could favor some regions while bypassing others, leaving key production zones exposed. Conversely, a slower onset may benefit most areas, supporting national yield potential - though flood risk and severe weather would remain elevated.

"We expect more storm systems, active fronts, and rotating temperature patterns," Baranick said. "But that's not automatically bad - in fact, it could be exactly what crops need."

The USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released Jan. 12 painted an optimistic picture of the 2025 harvest, despite similar weather volatility. U.S. growers achieved record-high corn and soybean yields, and near-record wheat yields, thanks to good early-season weather that offset late-year La Niña dryness.

That resilience offers hope heading into 2026 - particularly if rainfall picks up early and El Niño arrives at a manageable pace.

As always, regional differences will matter, and the specifics of rainfall timing, storm tracks, and temperature swings will determine crop outcomes at the field level. Baranick cautions that while the seasonal setup is broadly favorable, pockets of extreme weather could still undercut yields in key areas.

"Even a warm, dry month will have cool days and rain. It's the pattern - not a single event - that shapes the season," he noted.

Ultimately, U.S. agriculture heads into the 2026 growing season with cautious optimism, but with eyes wide open. El Niño's return could mark the third consecutive year of strong national yields - or expose regional vulnerabilities just as planting begins.