The USDA reported Thursday, July 23, that a dangerous combination of expanding heat, persistent drought and the approach of Tropical Storm Bertha is creating sharply different conditions across the United States, with potentially significant consequences for crop development, livestock operations and agricultural markets. While cooler temperatures are temporarily benefiting portions of the Corn Belt and central Plains, forecasters expect a widespread return of triple-digit heat during the coming days, making this forecast especially important as corn, soybean and forage crops enter critical stages of the growing season.

The Western United States continues to experience dangerously high temperatures, with highs expected to reach 115°F in lower elevations of the Desert Southwest. The USDA also highlighted poor air quality caused by ongoing wildfires and the continued threat of dry thunderstorms capable of igniting new fires. Across the central Plains, recent rainfall has improved conditions for rangeland, pastures and summer crops, but drought remains severe in several states. Colorado continues to report 75% of its rangeland and pastures in very poor or poor condition, while Nebraska stands at 68%, underscoring the long-term stress facing livestock producers despite scattered rainfall.

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The Corn Belt is currently benefiting from cooler temperatures near 80°F and generally dry conditions, weather that favors pollination and crop development. However, the USDA warned that soil moisture deficits are gradually increasing, particularly across the western portion of the region, where higher temperatures in recent weeks have intensified dryness. Forecast models indicate that this relief will likely be short-lived as heat expands across the central United States over the weekend, with temperatures climbing back above 100°F throughout much of the Plains and eventually extending toward the Mississippi Delta and the middle Mississippi Valley early next week. These conditions could increase crop stress if meaningful rainfall fails to materialize.

Although Tropical Storm Bertha has attracted widespread attention, the USDA noted that most of its heaviest rainfall has remained offshore, limiting impacts along the Gulf Coast. The storm is expected to make its final landfall on the upper Texas coast before weakening rapidly inland. Heavy rainfall remains possible in southern and coastal Texas, while southeastern states may receive 1 to 4 inches of additional rain as a weakening frontal system lingers through the weekend. Looking farther ahead, the National Weather Service projects above-normal temperatures across most of the country between July 28 and August 1, accompanied by below-normal rainfall from Texas through the Great Lakes, while wetter-than-average conditions are expected in parts of the Southwest, Intermountain West and sections of the Atlantic Coast. For producers, the outlook reinforces the need to closely monitor crop stress, irrigation requirements, livestock management and harvest planning as weather volatility continues to shape the 2026 growing season.