Weather

Heat Dome Threatens Crops Across Midwest, Plains

A surge of scorching temperatures is about to replace weeks of heavy rain across U.S. farm states. As a heat dome builds, crops already stressed by waterlogged soils may soon face a new threat: extreme heat and evaporating moisture reserves.

AgroLatam USA
AgroLatam USA

In eastern Nebraska, farmer Dave Warner says something is missing from his typical mid-July farm scene: the sun. Instead, it has been one of the wettest stretches in recent memory, with over 18.5 inches of rain in 30 days and yet another inch added overnight Thursday. While moisture was badly needed during spring planting, Warner says, "We are inundated."

That wet trend may not last. According to the National Weather Service, areas from Nebraska to the Mid-Atlantic are about to pivot from flooding concerns to extreme heat. Thunderstorms and heavy rain are expected over the weekend, followed by the formation of a heat dome early next week.

(NOAA)

(NOAA)

"We are keeping a very, very close eye on a heat dome that will be building up after this weekend," warns Meteorologist Jack Van Meter. "It's going all the way through Wednesday, bringing sweltering hot temperatures to most."

Forecast Highlights:

  • Mid-week highs in the 90s will stretch from the South to the Midwest.

  • By late week, 90°F temperatures could reach parts of the Northeast.

  • Triple-digit highs are expected in Texas, Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri.

  • Overnight lows in the upper 70s may prevent crops from cooling down.

Meteorologist Jonathan Erdman cautions that these nighttime temperatures offer little relief, potentially compounding stress for corn and soybean crops. Heat without cooling intervals can negatively impact grain fill and reduce yield potential.

In contrast to Warner's soaked Nebraska fields, other regions are desperately dry. Michael Clark of BAM Weather flags Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan as areas where rainfall is falling far short of average - just 25% to 50% of normal.

"Despite what anyone is saying, it needs to rain there," Clark insists, adding that warm overnight lows are especially worrisome for corn production.

Still, there is hope. Clark draws comparisons to prior growing seasons: "In my opinion, we are tracking close to 2005, 2021, and 2024. Two of those years delivered above-trend yields. 2024 was very big."

Clark believes 2025 is shaping up similarly: "The weather is doing what it needs to do for a very large crop to come from it overall."

As the ag sector braces for the week's weather shift, growers will be closely monitoring soil moisture levels, plant stress indicators, and the USDA Crop Progress reports for signs of how this heat dome could alter the season's trajectory.

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