As October begins, soil moisture conditions across central and western Kansas are exceptionally favorable for the development of the 2025-26 winter wheat crop. According to the NASA GRACE satellite-based soil moisture analysis, much of this region now ranks between the 70th and 98th percentiles of root-zone wetness (top 1meter of soil).

During September, rainfall totals ranged from 200% to 300% of normal, particularly in central and western Kansas. Eastern Kansas received 2 to 4 inches, northwestern zones registered 1 to 2 inches, while southwestern areas saw more than 4 inches. Central and southern Kansas had widespread totals above 5 inches, peaking at 6.47 inches in Lorraine (Ellsworth County) - a stark contrast to normal patterns.

Meteorologists attribute the favorable pattern to the synoptic flow setup. A ridge over the northeastern U.S. kept the East relatively dry, while a trough in the western U.S. directed atmospheric energy into the Plains, triggering sustained showers and thunderstorms. A slow-moving storm system later in the month produced near-daily rainfall for about 10 days, accounting for roughly half or more of September's totals.

Some locations posted remarkable multi-month gains. Dodge City, for instance, recorded over 4 inches in June, July, August, and September - a cumulative 17.36 inches, or 260% of normal for that period.

These precipitation gains prove especially meaningful in the broader context of Plains drought forecasts. While Oklahoma and Texas are expected to see drought conditions develop heading into fall and winter, the CPC outlook does not forecast drought for Kansas. Often grouped together when assessing drought risk across the Southern Plains, this year Kansas stands apart - a divergence attributed directly to its above-normal late summer and early fall rainfall.

For Kansas producers, the timing and magnitude of this moisture influx could prove decisive. Ample root-zone water at the start of dormancy can support early tillering and establishment of the winter wheat crop. With input costs and commodity price pressures high, an edge in soil moisture can help buffer yield potential and reduce irrigation demand where supplemental watering is practiced.

That said, continued monitoring is essential. The winter months will test the resilience of this moisture reservoir, and other factors - temperature, freeze cycles, disease pressure, and management - will also influence final outcomes. Yet for now, Kansas wheat growers can take encouragement: nature has delivered a generous head start.