As 2026 begins, farmers across the Southern Plains are feeling the strain of another La Niña-driven dry spell, a familiar but unwelcome pattern that's once again setting back hard red winter wheat development.

December 2025 precipitation levels plummeted far below average across key wheat-producing regions. In Kansas, Goodland recorded just 0.11 inches-a staggering 9.36 inches below normal. Wichita received only 0.02 inches, while Dodge City and Garden City were similarly dry. Medicine Lodge recorded zero precipitation, tying a record for December dryness.

Neighboring states fared no better. In Oklahoma, Guymon logged 0.11 inches and Oklahoma City a mere 0.09 inches-over 1.70 inches below normal. Texas wheat fields also endured severe deficits: Amarillo received 0.05 inches, Lubbock 0.01, and Childress just 0.08 inches.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, sea surface temperatures in the east-central and eastern Pacific are 0.5 to 1.5°C below average, confirming La Niña's strong presence. This phenomenon alters the jet stream, diverting storm tracks away from the Southern Plains and pushing moisture-laden systems toward the Ohio Valley and Northeast, leaving the southern Midwest dry.

The combination of drought and unseasonable warmth is especially problematic. "Warmer air recently has reduced winter hardiness for winter wheat," said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. "This increases the crop's vulnerability to cold snaps expected later this month."

Snow expected later this week could offer short-term insulation, but with La Niña expected to persist through winter, the risk of crop stress and yield loss looms large. Forecasts suggest light precipitation-0.20 to 0.70 inches of rain and 1-2 inches of snow-will pass through, but beyond that, conditions are expected to stay warm and dry for at least two more weeks.

For farmers and ag professionals, this early-season dryness poses critical questions about input planning, crop insurance strategies, and potential market impacts as the wheat crop heads deeper into winter under stress.

With La Niña holding firm, the Southern Plains wheat belt faces a pivotal start to 2026-one that could shape not only yields but also commodity prices and long-term sustainability planning.