Forecasts from NOAA and AccuWeather suggest that La Niña  conditions could emerge between October 2025 and January 2026, potentially affecting temperature and precipitation patterns across critical U.S. agricultural zones.

La Niña is the cooler phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. These changes shift jet stream patterns, typically pushing colder air into the northern U.S. while drying out the southern tier, especially parts of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California-all of which are major producers of livestock, vegetables, citrus, and cotton.

Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's lead long-range forecaster, explained that during La Niña winters, the upper jet stream splits over the northern Pacific, sending the northern branch down through western Canada and the northern U.S., while the southern storm track redirects precipitation toward the Northwest.

In the latest Climate Prediction Center outlooks, the December-February forecast shows:

• A 40%-50% chance of above-normal temperatures in the Southwest, including Arizona, Nevada, and parts of California.

• Colder-than-normal conditions likely for Washington and northwest Oregon.

• Below-average precipitation (33%-44% chance) across southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas.

These climatic shifts could have significant consequences for the U.S. agricultural sector:

• Winter wheat growers in the Southern Plains may see stunted growth due to dry conditions and reduced soil moisture.

• Livestock operations could face increased feed costs if forage growth is suppressed by drought.

• Fruit and nut producers in California may need to adjust irrigation strategies as water stress increases.

• Input costs such as heating for greenhouse production or animal housing may rise in colder northern zones.

While NOAA has not officially declared a full La Niña event-due to uncertainties in sea temperature anomalies-the weak signal is still strong enough to influence atmospheric patterns, experts say.

Michelle L'Heureux, a scientist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, emphasized that while multiple factors are incorporated into seasonal forecasts, La Niña often remains a dominant influence on precipitation during active phases.

For U.S. farmers and ag stakeholders, the coming months will demand close coordination with extension services, co-ops, and input suppliers to adjust planting schedules, manage risk, and respond to potential crop insurance claims or supply chain delays.

While this La Niña may be brief and modest in strength, even a partial disruption to weather norms can alter commodity prices, especially for grains, citrus, and cotton-commodities already navigating post-El Niño market volatility.