Seventh-generation farmer Brian Harbage of Clark County, Ohio, exemplifies the challenges gripping the Midwest. Last year's drought decimated yields-some regions harvested just 20% of corn and soybean crops-creating nationwide losses estimated at $11billion. This spring, the pendulum has swung: excessive rain triggered rampant disease and pest pressure across thousands of acres of soy and corn. "It would rain just as things started drying," says Harbage. His planting was delayed well past the optimum window, leading to stunted maturation and lower expected yields.

As planting gave way to disease, fungicide effects were overwhelmed by heat and humidity. Worse yet, Harbage must invest extra in propane to dry harvestable corn-another blow to rising input costs.

Overlaying this climate turmoil is a trade disaster. Once dominant, China has all but disappeared as a buyer. Soybean exports are at a 20-year low, with no major Chinese purchases reported this season. Farmers worry they may not move a single shipload-especially with a 20% retaliatory tariff keeping U.S. soybeans uncompetitive against cheaper Brazilian supply.

Despite the bleakness, many hold onto hope: Harbage admits tariffs "might help in the long run, but right now? They're terrible." Meanwhile, soybean prices remain $1.50-$2 per bushel below production costs, eating margins at planting.

Policy responses are struggling to catch up. The Trump administration has announced $60billion in subsidies over 10 years, but critics argue these disproportionately favor large-scale agribusiness over family farms. Mental health crises are worsening: suicide rates in rural farming communities are 3.5 times the national average.

On the trade front, Trump publicly urged China to quadruple its soy purchases, as tariff truce negotiations linger. U.S. soybean exports to China plunged 51% year-on-year in early 2025, and analysts say such a dramatic rebound is unlikely. Tariff tensions continue to distort futures markets.

Farm policy insiders like Virginia Houston of the American Soybean Association warn, "The farm economy is in a much tougher place than in 2018." Input costs-seed, fertilizer, chemicals, land, equipment-keep climbing even as commodity prices fall and volatility spikes.

For much of the summer, afternoon storms have battered the eastern corn belt, causing ponding that kills early plant growth. Diseases such as northern corn leaf blight, gray leaf spot and tar spot followed. "When it's being attacked by disease, it's not growing to its full potential," says Harbage. Even with treatments, high humidity undermines fungicide effectiveness, threatening more yield loss.