Cold late-autumn and early-winter weather in North America extended a pattern of persistent dryness that has now entrenched itself from Canada to the central and southern United States. By the end of November, vast stretches of the Midwest, Plains, and Pacific Northwest were already under drought or abnormally dry conditions. And with moisture-starved weather patterns continuing into early January, the situation has worsened - especially in winter wheat-producing regions.

While Canada's Prairies received frequent snowfall, frozen ground has largely blocked the absorption of meltwater into soils, limiting any benefit for spring planting. In the United States, normally dependable winter precipitation failed to materialize, leaving soils depleted and crop roots vulnerable.

In late December, much of the U.S. saw a sharp temperature reversal. After bitter cold earlier in the season, Christmas week brought record warmth across the central and southern Plains, with highs reaching into the 80s and even near 90°F in parts of Texas. The unseasonable heat accelerated evaporation, stressed dormant crops, and in some cases triggered premature growth in winter wheat - increasing vulnerability to any future cold snaps.

Dryness in the central and southern Plains is now severe, with areas from southern Nebraska through Texas reporting less than 25% of normal moisture. Across Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas, dry conditions continue to deepen, compounding concerns as the spring growing season approaches.

Forecasts suggest a brief window of rain and snow in early January, mostly across the central and eastern U.S., but lasting drought relief remains unlikely for the Plains and Southeast. While some precipitation may help the Midwest, soil moisture deficits persist, raising concerns for spring planting timelines.

All eyes are now on La Niña, which continues to shape North America's weather. Historically, La Niña winters tend to be dry, especially in the central U.S., but spring often brings a pattern shift. The timing of that shift is critical. If significant moisture returns by February or March, it could support strong early crop development. But delayed rains into May or June would threaten yields, particularly for wheat.

In Canada, meaningful drought relief may not arrive until late May or June, with spring conditions remaining uncertain. For U.S. producers, the outlook is clearer: monitor weather closely, optimize for soil health and irrigation, and be prepared for spring volatility. The next eight weeks will be pivotal in determining how much of this dryness is temporary - and how much becomes entrenched in the 2026 growing season.