Southern U.S. Croplands Dry Out as Winter Ends, Raising Spring Concerns
Dry soils stretch across key U.S. crop regions. With La Niña fading, will rain come in time for planting? Here's what ag professionals should know.
As of February 11, 2026, southern and central U.S. farm regions are experiencing below-normal soil moisture due to weak La Niña effects and a historically dry January-just weeks before critical planting begins.
The USDA and NASA GRACE satellite data confirm expanding dryness across major growing zones from southern Texas to the Southeast, with pastures and non-irrigated winter crops already impacted.
Average U.S. precipitation in January was just 1.53 inches, down 34% from the 20th-century average, making it the fourth-driest January of the 21st century, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Without a late-January storm, January 2026 could have ranked among the driest on record.
Northern and Mid-South U.S. crop areas have adequate to surplus soil moisture going into late winter. Other areas are running short to very short. (NASA GRACE analysis)
Key Crop Regions Facing Dryness Ahead of Spring
-
Only the Northern Plains show above-normal soil moisture.
-
Kentucky and Tennessee are near normal.
-
Most other areas in the central and eastern U.S. range from moderately dry to very short.
-
The Deep South, especially, is experiencing acute dryness.
Current drought coverage remains steady at around 40% of the U.S., a level that's persisted since September 2025.
La Niña's Role and What's Next
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on February 11 measured +9.39, consistent with La Niña influence, although recent readings have fluctuated. Meteorologists expect La Niña to weaken through February and transition to a neutral pattern by spring.
That could bring increased storm activity across the mainland U.S.-welcome news for dryland farmers, but timing is critical.
What It Means for U.S. Agriculture
-
Moisture use rises rapidly in March and April-any delay in rainfall may hurt early crop development.
-
Producers may need to rely more on irrigation, increasing input costs.
-
Watch for potential shifts in commodity prices and farm-level risk.
-
The USDA and ag extension services will monitor conditions closely as planting nears.
Farmers in the southern Plains, Delta, and Southeast should prepare for variable conditions and consider adjusting planting strategies if forecasts don't improve.
