The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Tuesday that a strong El Niño event is likely to develop in the coming months, with an 80% chance of forming between June and August and a 90% probability of lasting through November. The warning matters because El Niño has the potential to disrupt crop production, livestock operations, commodity markets and food supply chains across both the United States and Latin America, two of the world's most important agricultural regions.

For farmers, grain traders and agribusiness executives, the concern is not simply El Niño itself. Scientists say climate change is amplifying the phenomenon's effects, creating the conditions for more extreme weather, larger economic losses and greater volatility in agricultural markets.

The WMO now warns that the combination of a strong El Niño and rising global temperatures could make 2027 the hottest year ever recorded, surpassing previous records and increasing pressure on food production systems worldwide.

Why U.S. Agriculture Is Paying Close Attention

While El Niño originates in the Pacific Ocean, its effects are felt thousands of miles away across North America.

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Historically, El Niño can alter weather patterns throughout the United States, affecting rainfall distribution, temperatures and storm activity. For U.S. producers, that could mean:

• Excessive rainfall in some growing regions.
• Heat stress in livestock operations.
• Higher disease pressure in crops.
• Increased irrigation demand.
• Greater weather-related yield uncertainty.

The impact is especially important because the United States remains one of the world's largest producers of corn, soybeans, wheat, beef and dairy products.

Any disruption to production can quickly influence commodity prices, farm profitability and export competitiveness.

Latin America Faces Significant Risks

The threat is equally important south of the U.S. border.

Latin America plays a critical role in global food security, supplying major volumes of soybeans, corn, beef, coffee, sugar and fruits to international markets.

A strong El Niño typically brings heavier rainfall to southern Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, while creating drier conditions in parts of Central America.

Those shifts can produce both opportunities and risks.

Excessive rain may improve soil moisture in some regions but can also trigger flooding, planting delays, disease outbreaks and harvest losses.

The region has experienced these consequences before.

In 2024, devastating floods in southern Brazil killed more than 180 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Researchers later concluded that both El Niño and climate change intensified the rainfall that contributed to the disaster.

Scientists now warn that a similarly strong event could recreate comparable conditions.

Why Food Prices Could Be Affected

For consumers, the biggest concern may be what happens at the grocery store.

The United States and Latin America together account for a substantial share of global agricultural exports. Weather disruptions affecting both regions simultaneously could impact:

• Corn supplies.
• Soybean exports.
• Beef production.
• Dairy markets.
• Coffee prices.
• Fresh produce availability.

Reduced yields or transportation disruptions often translate into increased market volatility and higher food costs.

Agricultural economists note that extreme weather events have become an increasingly important driver of global food inflation over the last decade.

Climate Change Is Raising the Stakes

Scientists emphasize that this El Niño is occurring against a backdrop of unprecedented global warming.

Average global temperatures are already about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, meaning every heatwave, drought or flood now starts from a warmer baseline.

As a result, the weather extremes associated with El Niño are becoming more damaging. Researchers warn that future impacts could include:

• More intense droughts.
• Stronger flooding events.
• Larger crop failures.
• Greater wildfire risks.
• More powerful tropical storms.

Some climate experts argue that this year's El Niño may provide a glimpse of the conditions farmers could face regularly later this decade.

A Critical Test for Agriculture Across the Americas

For producers from Iowa and Nebraska to Brazil and Argentina, the months ahead will be closely monitored.

The emergence of a strong El Niño would not only shape planting and harvest decisions but could also influence crop insurance claims, input costs, export flows, commodity prices and food security outcomes across the hemisphere.

As weather risks continue to grow, the event highlights the increasing importance of precision agriculture, climate resilience, water management and risk mitigation strategies for farms on both sides of the equator.