The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows a patchwork of conditions across the country. While southern Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and parts of the Northeast saw 1-3 inches of rainfall that improved soil moisture and streamflow, large stretches of the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes remained locked in dry, hot weather.

In many regions, temperatures ran 6-10°F above normal in late September, accelerating crop maturity and stressing already dry soils. "Many areas are going on 30-45 days with no rain," said Ryan Gentle, Wyffels agronomy manager in Illinois. "Next week is going to continue the high heat and no rain pattern."

In Illinois, Syngenta agronomist Phil Krieg reported rainfall totals ranging from tenths of an inch up to 5 inches along the I-70 corridor, but soils absorbed it so quickly that harvest was not slowed. By week's end, fields returned to upper-80s temperatures with no rain forecast for 10-14 days. Local fire departments have even warned farmers to keep tillage equipment ready to help contain potential field fires.

For much of central and northern Illinois, northern Indiana, northwest Ohio, and southern Wisconsin, the lack of meaningful precipitation has led to 1-category drought degradations. In northwest Iowa, southern Minnesota, and eastern South Dakota, Wyffels agronomy manager Jared Goplen noted that "dew points have dropped as well over the weekend which has really sped field drying of both soybeans and corn. We will likely be losing close to a point of moisture per day in the corn."

The High Plains offered a different picture. Widespread rains from southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas into northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming brought locally over 2 inches of precipitation, leading to 1-category drought improvements and even the removal of moderate drought in parts of South Dakota. Still, moderate drought expanded in Colorado's San Luis Valley, where deficits remain entrenched.

Nationwide, the uneven pattern leaves farmers balancing harvest opportunities with drought-driven stress on yields. Short-term soil moisture gains in parts of the Midwest contrast sharply with deepening rainfall deficits in the north-central states. For producers, the conditions underscore the challenges of harvesting amid climate variability, high input costs, and lingering policy uncertainty from the federal shutdown.