The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) warned on Friday, July 24, that an expanding heat wave is expected to intensify across much of the Plains and spread toward the western Corn Belt, increasing pressure on crops, livestock and pasture conditions. According to the agency's latest Agricultural Weather Highlights, temperatures between 100°F and 105°F are forecast across large portions of the Plains during the weekend, while drought and declining soil moisture continue to threaten agricultural productivity. The forecast matters because weather conditions over the next several days will play a critical role in determining crop yields, harvest progress and commodity market expectations heading into August.

Across the western United States, approximately three dozen wildfires burning in Washington and Oregon continue to reduce air quality and visibility, while Oregon's Rowe Creek and Hay Creek Complex fires have already burned nearly 300,000 acres. At the same time, the temporary slowdown of the Southwest monsoon is allowing extremely hot and dry conditions to dominate much of the region, with temperatures reaching 115°F in parts of the Desert Southwest. These conditions increase water demand, accelerate evaporation and place additional stress on rangeland, specialty crops and livestock operations already coping with elevated input costs and persistent drought.

Weather Conditions by Major Agricultural Region

Conditions remain more favorable across much of the Corn Belt, where temperatures are generally staying below 85°F, supporting the reproductive and grain-filling stages of corn and soybean development. However, USDA meteorologists note that soil moisture shortages are beginning to emerge, particularly in parts of Iowa and Missouri, despite scattered showers. Meanwhile, the northern Plains continue to benefit from hot weather that is accelerating winter wheat harvest and promoting the maturation of spring wheat, although prolonged dryness remains a growing concern for rain-fed crops and forage production. Weather during late July and early August will likely determine whether favorable crop prospects can be maintained through harvest.

Looking ahead, USDA expects the southern Plains to remain exceptionally hot into next week, while only the northern Plains should receive modest temperature relief. Triple-digit heat is forecast to expand eastward into the western Corn Belt and the Mississippi Delta, whereas the central and eastern Corn Belt should avoid the most extreme temperatures. Rainfall during the next five days is expected to remain generally light across much of the Mississippi Valley, while extensive portions of the Plains may receive little or no precipitation. The agency's 6-to-10-day outlook also favors above-normal temperatures across most of the United States, reinforcing concerns over crop stress, pasture quality, commodity prices and yield potential as producers enter one of the most critical periods of the growing season.

USDA Temperature Outlook