This week, a strong ridge in the western U.S. is met with a series of mid-level troughs positioned over the Midwest, off California's coast, and across the North Pacific. These features will migrate eastward at different speeds, maintaining an overall active national weather pattern through the first half of July. The ridge may re-establish itself in the West next week, locking in a persistent trough over the central and eastern U.S.-a configuration likely to stall until mid-July.

Models from both the U.S. and Europe generally agree for this week, but diverge in their outlooks next week. The European model currently appears more accurate.

A slow-moving system over the Midwest is likely to stall or drift southeast, generating widespread rain events into the weekend. Additional disturbances are expected to move in from the north early, mid, and late next week, maintaining rainy conditions in the Corn Belt. Meanwhile, a potential tropical system may develop off a stalled boundary near the Gulf or Southeast coast, warranting close monitoring.

Regional Climate Impacts

Northern Plains (Cattle/Wheat/Corn/Soy): While showers may occur midweek, most of the region remains dry until Thursday night when a larger system could bring widespread storms through Saturday. Overall, active weather continues next week. Despite pockets of drought, rainfall is arriving regularly enough to limit serious concerns for now.

Central & Southern Plains (Cattle/Winter Wheat/Corn/Soy): Moisture remains an issue for winter wheat harvest. However, rainfall has generally supported corn and soybean growth. A stalled front near the Red River and another system arriving Friday will sustain scattered storms into next week.

Midwest (Cattle/Winter Wheat/Corn/Soy): After clearing showers Monday, the region turns warmer with limited precipitation until the weekend. Then, a slow-moving front and midweek disturbances are set to bring additional rain. Most areas remain in favorable condition, though there is variation in moisture distribution.

Delta/Lower Mississippi (Corn/Soy/Cotton/Transport): Weekend rainfall created patchy areas of excess soil moisture. A frontal boundary will linger, generating persistent showers throughout the week. A tropical system in the Gulf may emerge over the weekend, with uncertain impacts.

International Highlights

Canada (Wheat/Canola): Scattered rainfall is expected this week, but coverage may be limited-especially in the south and east-raising concerns for reproductive crop stages.

Brazil (Corn/Winter Wheat): Cold snaps and frequent rain have delayed harvest and caused minor frost damage in southern regions. However, conditions should improve with dry weather this week, aiding recovery and field access.

Argentina (Corn/Soy/Winter Wheat): Widespread frosts continue but have minimal impact on remaining harvest. Dry conditions support harvesting, but more rain is needed for wheat establishment.

Europe (Winter Wheat/Corn): Dry, warm weather aided cereal harvest but stressed maize in already dry areas. Two systems are forecast this week and next, likely bringing needed rainfall and seasonable temperatures.

Black Sea (Winter Wheat/Corn): Isolated rains continue, with heavier precipitation expected from western systems next week. Dry weather would benefit wheat harvest, but rain is still needed for maize and sunflower.

Australia (Winter Wheat/Canola): Conditions remain too dry for early crop rooting. Coastal rain is expected this week, but interior wheat belts remain dry, increasing the urgency for precipitation in coming months.

China (Winter Wheat/Canola/Corn/Soy): Scattered weekend showers supported maize and soy development. Continued active patterns will bring more rain this week and next, benefiting much of the ag sector.

U.S. Climate Extremes (July 1):

• High Temp: 119°F in Topock, AZ

• Low Temp: 27°F in Peter Sinks, UT

• Top Rainfall: 2.55 inches in Tallahassee, FL (last 24 hours):

U.S. agriculture is entering July under the influence of a persistent ridge-trough pattern that is producing a volatile mix of rainfall, heat, and storm activity. Midwestern and Plains farmers should brace for renewed moisture swings and prepare contingency plans for potential flooding or harvest delays. The possibility of tropical development near the Gulf underscores the importance of close weather monitoring as the growing season intensifies.