As harvest approaches, the 2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour has revealed a stark contrast in crop performance across the U.S. Corn Belt. Western Corn Belt states are thriving, with corn and soybean yields rising thanks to timely rains, while Eastern states are underperforming due to late-season dryness and disease pressure.

DTN's September yield models raised estimates by 4 to 7 bushels per acre (bpa) in Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Most other states held steady or slightly increased, except Illinois, which saw corn estimates dip by 0.75 bpa. For soybeans, the Western states also gained ground, while Missouri and Illinois posted declines.

"This may be contrary to the chatter on the ground about various diseases and growing conditions that are expected to negatively impact yield," said DTN Data Scientist Scott Williams. He explained that the model reflects a best-case scenario based on remote sensing and agronomic data, but doesn't capture invisible factors like fungal diseases.

In Iowa, farmer Erik Oberbroekling noted his yields will be strong, but likely below last year's record. Despite favorable August rains, persistent warm nights and disease pressure, including southern rust, are taking a toll.

"It's going to be hard to have maximum yield on a crop that gave up a month of sunshine," he said, noting premature dry-down in central Iowa.

Soybean crops faced less disease pressure but are still affected by moisture deficits. Oberbroekling expects soybean yields to exceed his farm's 67-bpa average, thanks to timely August rains.

Weather patterns split the region, according to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. The Western Corn Belt received consistent rainfall, while the East dried out dramatically in August. "Yield declines are likely in these areas because of it," Baranick noted.

DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said that while models offer insights, true yields won't be clear until combines run. Corn may still produce a record crop with 88 million harvested acres, even if national yields dip to 180 bpa. Soybeans, however, have less margin for error.

"Soybean yields are extremely important this year," Montgomery said. "With China's demand uncertain and tight export margins, even a small slip in yield could pressure stocks by summer 2026."

DYT Results 2025 - Corn (bushels per acre)

DYT Results 2025 - Soybeans (bushels per acre)