Second quarter earnings for major U.S. agribusiness firms Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Bunge Global SA fell to multi-year lows amid mounting trade tensions and policy uncertainty surrounding U.S. biofuels, according to multiple financial reports.

ADM posted its weakest Q2 profit in five years, citing "U.S. trade upheaval and uncertainty around biofuel policies" as key headwinds that slowed sales and compressed trading and crop processing margins. The company now forecasts full-year 2025 adjusted earnings of around $4.00 per share, the lowest since 2020.

Despite a sluggish first half, ADM sees potential for recovery in the months ahead, buoyed by proposed U.S. policies to boost biofuel use and support domestic feedstocks. Those changes could improve crop processing margins, lifting shares by as much as 5.3% in post-earnings trading.

However, ADM is also bracing for fallout from President Donald Trump's expansive tariff measures, which could trigger retaliation targeting agricultural goods. Global grain merchants like ADM, Bunge, and Cargill have faced shrinking profits from abundant crop supplies and thinning margins, with tariff threats adding volatility.

Bunge, too, reported its lowest Q2 earnings since 2018, though its $1.31 per share still exceeded analyst expectations. The company benefited from strong processing performance in South America. Yet, CEO Greg Heckman acknowledged that challenges remain, emphasizing the importance of Bunge's newly completed $7.3 billion acquisition of Viterra Inc. to unlock efficiencies and restore profitability.

"The pledged benefits of the transaction hold true today and are especially relevant as we navigate the current macro environment," Heckman told investors.

Beyond commodity firms, the tariff impact is spreading to the ag equipment sector. AGCO Corp. and CNH Industrial NV have warned that tariffs on imported components and machinery will force them to raise equipment prices globally.

AGCO's high-end Fendt tractors and combines, assembled in Europe, are among the products affected by a new 15% EU export tariff to the U.S. CEO Eric Hansotia said the company is spreading cost increases across its product line to cushion the blow. "We have a pile of costs that we've got to absorb somehow," he said.

Similarly, CNH Industrial expects second-half revenue pressure as tariff-influenced inventory enters its production pipeline. Although Q2 exceeded forecasts, CFO James Nikolas confirmed that most of the tariff impact will surface later in the year.

CEO Gerrit Marx said future performance will depend heavily on the scope and timing of U.S. tariffs and trade partner responses. The company aims to mitigate costs through price hikes and lower-cost sourcing, but still expects 2025 sales to fall below 2024 levels.

Analysts agree that the full impact of the current trade climate will be felt in the coming quarters. Oppenheimer's Kristen Owen noted that tariff effects are "weighted to the second half of the year," even as firms scramble to revise pricing strategies.