Afternoon market recap: grains slip as technical selling dominates
Traders hit the sell button again on June26 as corn, soybeans, and wheat slipped for the fourth consecutive session. Weather forecasts hint at drought relief across parts of the Corn Belt, but light rain and bearish technicals continued to pressure struout grain markets.
Corn futures lost ground late Wednesday and resumed losses on Thursday after brief overnight gains. July corn fell 1.25¢ to $4.09, while September dropped to $4.04. Export sales for old- and new-crop corn totaled 41 million bushels-within expectations-but were 17% below the previous four-week average, and shipments were 12% lower than recent trends.
Soybean futures followed the same pattern. July soy slipped 3.5¢ to $10.2175, while August edged down to $10.27. U.S. exporters reported a private sale of 4 million bushels to Egypt for 2024-25, though weekly sales fell 16% and shipments declined 24% from the prior week.
Soybean prices were slightly in the red, tracking around 0.25% lower on Thursday.
Wheat took the largest hit, dropping nearly 1.5% amid technical selling and scattered rainfall forecasts. Chicago SRW fell 7.75¢, Kansas City HRW lost 5.75¢, and spring wheat (MGEX) declined 4.5¢.
Chicago SRW contracts faced the heaviest losses of any grains on Thursday after July futures eroded almost 1.5% lower today.
Markets responded to a combination of factors: lackluster export sales, technical chart pressure, and NOAA forecasts calling for 0.75 of weekend precipitation across much of the Corn Belt. The 8-14day model points to wet trends and near-normal temperatures for early July.
In broader financials, the Dow gained 370 points, easing on tariff and inflation concerns. Oil and gasoline futures rose slightly, while the U.S. dollar weakened.
Commodity funds turned net sellers across grains: corn (-11K contracts), soybeans (-7K), soymeal (-3.5K), and wheat (-3.5K), though they bought soyoil (+1K contracts).
why this matters to producers
Feed and input costs: Lower corn and soy prices may reduce ration expenses, though prolonged declines could signal abundant global supply.
Crop conditions: Rains may improve field conditions but also delay plantings in some areas.
Global competition: Weak wheat pricing reflects pressure from Russian and Canadian exports, especially amid rain-adjusted harvest forecasts.
Risk strategy: Three straight down sessions activate technical chart signals-producers may consider short-term hedging or setting price floors.
other trends to monitor
Upcoming USDA reports and crop condition updates could reverse or reinforce bearish sentiment.
Weather remains key-another dry spell after this wet cycle may flip market momentum.
Cash bids and hedging should be reviewed as volatility increases.