U.S. retail fertilizer prices rose sharply during the first week of October 2025, led by significant increases in anhydrous ammonia and DAP, according to the latest DTN survey of ag retailers. Half of the eight major fertilizers tracked posted price increases over the previous month, while the other half saw slight declines.

The most notable price movement came from anhydrous, which jumped 6% to an average of $813 per ton, surpassing the $800 mark for the first time since December 2023, when it hit $807. Compared to one year ago, anhydrous is now 18% more expensive. DAP also rose 5%, reaching $906 per ton, reflecting heightened demand and tightening inventories ahead of fall application season.

Other fertilizers with modest gains included MAP, which rose to $921 per ton, and UAN28, now at $419 per ton. In contrast, potash, urea, 10-34-0, and UAN32 posted minor price declines from September. Still, all fertilizers are higher year-over-year, with UAN32 leading the way at +33%, followed by UAN28 at +32%, urea at +26%, and DAP at +23%.

Here's a look at the current national average retail fertilizer prices for the week of September 29 to October 3, 2025:

DRY FERTILIZERS

LIQUID FERTILIZERS

From a nutrient-cost perspective, nitrogen prices remain elevated across the board. On a per-pound of nitrogen basis, average prices are: urea $0.66/lb.N, anhydrous $0.50/lb.N, UAN28 $0.75/lb.N, and UAN32 $0.73/lb.N.

Meanwhile, global policy shifts may soon add more pressure to the fertilizer market. The European Union's carbon border tax, scheduled to take effect in 2026, could raise import costs on 15 million metric tons of nitrogen-based fertilizers, according to a recent Rabobank report. The estimated price impacts range from 10-20% for ammonia, 10-15% for urea, and 2-5% for DAP in the early years. By 2030, those figures could rise dramatically-up to 50% for ammonia, 45% for urea, and 10% for DAP-as free allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System are phased out.

The U.S., with lower average emissions per unit of production, is expected to gain competitive advantage in the global fertilizer market. High-emission producers like China and Trinidad and Tobago may face significant liabilities under these rules. The report also notes that U.S. trade policy and ongoing EU restrictions on Russian fertilizers will likely accelerate sourcing realignments.

For American growers and ag retailers, these shifts reinforce the importance of price monitoring, nutrient planning, and input timing strategies. As the 2026 crop year approaches, managing fertilizer costs amid global uncertainty will be critical to preserving margins and ensuring operational resilience.