Brazil is on track for a record-setting corn harvest in 2024-25, but a complex mix of domestic consumption surges and logistical hurdles is frustrating export potential. Market analysts see this disrupting global flows-and potentially handing an advantage to U.S. corn exporters during the critical fall window.

Brazil's second corn crop, known as safrinha, now accounts for around 78% of total output, delivering record yields thanks to favorable rains in key states like Mato Grosso and Goiás. Despite this surplus, projections indicate Brazil may cut back exports, as increased domestic demand-roughly 70% for livestock feed and 15% for ethanol-absorbs much of the harvest. Compounding this, port congestion and storage limitations-especially due to soybean traffic-are stalling corn shipments.

July export volumes from Brazil came in unusually low, driven by weak demand from China and initial logistical delays. Meanwhile, the U.S. is seeing robust corn export sales, surpassing expectations and possibly prompting upward revisions by the USDA.

What lies ahead this fall? If Brazil maintains sluggish exports in the September-November marketing window, U.S. exporters could capture early-season demand, particularly in Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Conversely, a late-year ramp-up in Brazilian supply-December through February-could intensify global competition.

Additional uncertainties include:

Potential USDA revisions to U.S. corn yield forecasts.

Trade policy shifts or new tariffs affecting competitiveness.

A possible revival of Chinese buying could rebalance global demand toward Brazil.

In short, while both countries are poised for near-record corn output, the key question remains: how and when these volumes hit the global market.