Brazil's Delayed Corn Harvest Could Be a Boon-Or a Bomb-for U.S. Grain Exports. Are We Watching the Wrong Risk?
Markets cheer Brazil's slow safrinha harvest as a win for old-crop U.S. exports. But a quiet threat is looming for fall. Could it derail our next marketing push?
The U.S. corn market is enjoying a short-term lift. Thanks to a delayed Brazilian safrinha harvest, old-crop exports are pushing forward with unexpected strength. Recent export inspections topped 53.9 million bushels, with 83.5% of USDA's annual target already shipped. That's the good news.
But behind that optimism lies a deeper question: what happens in September?
As of June 28, only 17% of Brazil's second corn crop had been harvested, well below the five-year average of 28.2%. That delay has reduced Brazil's competitiveness for now. Coupled with a strong real and higher domestic prices, the window opened for U.S. shippers.
Yet this is likely temporary. By August, Brazil's grain export program will shift into high gear, especially as soybean exports wind down. With corn availability increasing and the internal demand for ethanol risidriven by Brazil's new 30% ethanol blend mandate-a significant ramp-up is coming.
U.S. new-crop corn exports may face a headwind from September through November, just when American farmers will be most active with harvest and contracting. USDA's current export projection of 2.65 billion bushels for 2024-25 may look ambitious if Brazilian shipments begin flooding key markets.
Even Brazil's export forecast is uncertain. While production estimates range from 128 to 150.3 million metric tons, actual export potential may be far lower-34 to 44.5 MMT, compared to USDA's 43 MMT. That gap reflects Brazil's increasing domestic demand for feed and fuel, which could buffer global oversupply... or not.
For U.S. producers, this means one thing: volatility.
The July 11 WASDE report may adjust some figures, especially if yield forecasts improve beyond the current 181 bushels per acre. But no report can predict the behavior of Brazilian exporters, nor how geopolitics or logistics might alter demand flows.
In this high-stakes environment, risk management isn't optional-it's strategic. A forward-looking plan, focused on basis contracts, international trade patterns, and ethanol policy, could mean the difference between profit and peril this harvest season.