As corn and soybean prices shift heading into 2026, understanding what price you need to cover costs is becoming more critical than ever. Rising input costs-including machinery ownership, land, fertilizer, labor, and depreciation-mean many producers face breakeven levels well above current market forecasts. Using Purdue University's 2025 Crop Cost and Return Guide, this article lays out key breakeven figures for average- and high-productivity soils, explains why "economic costs" matter, and emphasizes that profitability starts with accurate cost accounting.

Based on Purdue estimates, for corn in 2025 the breakeven price to cover all costs is about $5.35 per bushel on average soil and $5.00 on high-productivity soil. Projections for 2026 show small adjustments: average soil stays around $5.35, while high productivity soil may drop slightly to $4.95. Soybeans are even more demanding: full-season soybeans' breakeven prices for 2025 are approximately $12.35 per bushel on average soils, $11.60 on high-productivity land; for 2026, these rise to $12.50 (average) and $11.80 (high). Producers farming lower-quality soils will generally need still higher prices to break even.

It's not enough simply to tally up cash expenses. A complete budget must include opportunity costs-what the farmer could have earned had owned resources like land, machinery, or labor been used elsewhere or rented out. Opportunity cost, depreciation, and all non-cash costs are essential to compute economic profit, which over time tends toward zero when all inputs are priced in competitive markets. If economic profit is positive, costs rise as others try to capture that profit; if negative, pressure mounts to reduce costs or prices edge upward.

USDA forecasts for corn suggest a decline from about $4.30 per bushel in the 2024-25 marketing year to $3.90 in 2025-26. That puts many producers at risk of selling below breakeven, especially those operating on average or low productivity soils. Even under optimistic supply and demand scenarios, corn prices in fall 2026 may range between $3.90 and $5.10 per bushel. Given those signals, forward pricing, crop rotation choices, and marketing plans must be grounded in a clear understanding of farm-by-farm cost structure.

This isn't one-size-fits-all. It is common for farms to deviate ±10 percent from budget benchmarks depending on yield, soil type, equipment ownership, and input efficiency. Therefore, accounting for your own farm's costs-tractor and planter ownership, grain handling equipment, combine depreciation, land rent (or imputed land value), machinery upkeep-is crucial. Doing so per field or per tract yields a sharper picture. Without that level of detail, decisions on what to plant, when, and at what price risk being guesses more than strategy.

Because breakeven benchmarks are rising, many farms will need to manage tighter margins. That may involve adjusting cash flow projections, controlling fixed costs, postponing non-essential capital outlays, or negotiating input and service contracts more aggressively. Crop insurance, precision agriculture tools, or better yield monitoring may reduce risk and improve efficiency. The farm bill, supply chain disruptions, global fertilizer prices, energy costs-all intersect to impact margins, and all reinforce that being able to calculate breakeven is not optional.

In short, profitability in 2025-2026 will depend on knowing your true cost per bushel (or per tote, depending on crop), being realistic about yield and soil quality, and not assuming that market prices will suddenly leap above those costs. A producer who builds thorough budgets, includes all economic costs, and understands where their own farm stands has a far stronger chance of making sound decisions, protecting capital, and ultimately turning a profit.