For the first time since November 2018, China did not import a single shipment of U.S. soybeans in September, according to newly released customs data. This dramatic decline reflects the intensifying trade dispute between the world's two largest economies, alongside tariff barriers and increased availability of competitive supplies from Brazil and Argentina.

Shipments from the U.S. dropped to zero from 1.7 million metric tons a year earlier, while China's overall soybean imports soared to 12.87 million metric tons, the second-highest monthly total on record. Brazil supplied 85.2% of those imports, shipping 10.96 million tons, a 29.9% increase from a year ago. Argentina's share rose by 91.5%, reaching 1.17 million tons, or 9% of China's intake.

"This is mainly due to tariffs," said Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures. "In a typical year, some old-crop beans would still enter the market."

The absence of U.S. soybeans this September follows the depletion of old-crop stocks and the ongoing reluctance of Chinese crushers to buy new U.S. supplies. Despite a strong early-year showing, no new purchases have been made from the U.S. autumn harvest, as buyers rush to lock in supplies from South America through November, aided by Argentina's temporary export tax suspension.

Though year-to-date U.S. soybean exports to China total 16.8 million tons-a 15.5% increase from last year-the sudden halt in recent activity raises concerns for American farmers, who face mounting pressure as the seasonal export window closes.

"If there's no trade deal, China may face a soybean supply gap between February and April next year," warned Johnny Xiang, founder of AgRadar Consulting in Beijing. "Brazil has already shipped a huge volume, and no one knows how much old-crop stock remains."

The situation is evolving as trade talks between Washington and Beijing show signs of revival, with President Trump expressing optimism about a forthcoming soybean agreement. However, without a concrete breakthrough, the U.S. risks losing further ground in a market where Brazil continues to expand its share with record harvests and favorable logistics.

For now, the global soybean trade remains firmly tilted toward South America, and unless negotiations yield quick results, U.S. growers could face billions in lost revenue in the months ahead.