China's soybean imports reached an all-time high in June 2025, totaling 12.26 million metric tons, driven by massive shipments from Brazil, which accounted for 9.73 million tons. In contrast, U.S. soybean exports to China during the month totaled just 724,000 tons, reflecting a persistent shift in global sourcing.

According to industry analysts, the surge is fueled by two key trends: a record Brazilian harvest and ongoing China-U.S. trade tensions that continue to restrict American market access. Despite U.S. farmers' capacity and competitiveness, diplomatic friction is steadily redirecting Chinese demand toward Brazil.

So far this year, China has imported 49.37 million tons of soybeans, up 1.8% from the same period in 2024. Imports in July are expected to remain high, with forecasts at 10.48 million tons, compared to 9.85 million last July.

This growth is occurring even as China's government pursues a loterm strategy to reduce soymeal consumption in livestock feed-targeting a drop from 13% to 10% by 2030. But with domestic production shortfalls and strong feed demand, total soybean imports still exceed 95 million tons annually, keeping China the world's top soybean importer.

For U.S. agriculture, the data underscores a growing challenge:

Declining market share in China is limiting opportunities for soybean growers.

Brazil's dominance is reshaping global pricing dynamics and supply agreements.

Exporters and co-ops may need to shift focus toward alternative markets or develop value-added products such as biofuels or specialized feed.

The outlook for late 2025 will largely depend on geopolitical developments. A potential thaw in U.S.-China relations could reopen doors for American producers. However, without diplomatic progress, Brazil is poised to remain China's dominant soybean supplier into 2026.