Grain markets opened August with sharp divergences across the board. Corn futures showed signs of recovery following a turbulent weather week, while soybeans extended a relentless slide to levels not seen since early spring. Wheat also stumbled further into contract lows despite strong export interest.

A derecho that tore through South Dakota and northwest Iowa earlier this week failed to make a lasting impact on the corn market. While some property damage occurred, crop losses were minimal, and traders shrugged off the event. Still, the storm was a timely reminder of August's unpredictable weather risks, especially during critical crop stages.

Corn Futures Rebound on Exports, Technical Bounce

December corn held steady at $4.1375 per bushel after rebounding from near-contract lows earlier in the week. The two-day rally marks the first consecutive gain since mid-July. Market sentiment improved amid better-than-expected export sales and concerns over excessive rainfall affecting pollination in parts of the Midwest.

According to USDA data, net new-crop corn sales totaled 1.89 million metric tons, with significant purchases by unknown destinations and South Korea. U.S. export commitments for the 2024-25 marketing year are now up 28% year-over-year, surpassing USDA's full-year target with a month left.

Despite the uptick, analysts maintain a cautious outlook, noting that the rebound may present a selling opportunity within a larger bearish trend. Much of the corn belt is forecast to experience drier conditions this weekend, a break from July's soaking rains.

Soybeans Plunge to Four-Month Low

In contrast, November soybeans fell to $9.8675, down 2.5 cents and posting a sixth straight daily loss. The contract has lost over 8% since its June highs, with chart support eroding below the $10.00 mark.

The primary drag on soybeans is favorable August weather forecasts, critical for the pod-filling stage. Although high temperatures are expected, they are not seen as threatening, and abundant July rainfall continues to support healthy crop development.

Export data offered mixed signals. New-crop soybean sales rose 80% week-over-week to 428,500 MT, yet Chinese demand remained notably absent. For 2024-25 to date, exports are up 12.6% over last year, but 2025-26 sales lag 14.6% below year-ago levels.

Wheat Sinks to Lifetime Lows Despite Export Momentum

September SRW wheat dropped to $5.19, a lifetime low for the contract. Ample U.S. harvest supply continues to weigh on futures, overshadowing respectable export activity. HRW and spring wheat contracts also posted modest losses.

Wheat export sales reached 592,100 MT for the week, with unknown destinations and Nigeria leading demand. Cumulative sales for 2025-26 are up 15% from the previous year, representing nearly 43% of USDA's full-year forecast.

Weather Outlook and Policy Watch

The central Corn Belt will remain mostly dry through Monday, while the Plains see moderate rainfall. NOAA's extended forecasts predict above-normal temperatures and precipitation for much of the Midwest in early August.

Traders are now focused on USDA's August 12 Crop Production report, which will provide the first satellite and farmer survey-based yield estimates of the year. Speculation is growing around a potential record corn yield, possibly reaching 185 bushels per acre, versus USDA's current estimate of 181.

With storage and marketing strategies under pressure, the coming weeks will be critical for farmers navigating oversupply risks and volatile market signals.