U.S. corn ending stocks could drop below 1.3 billion bushels, reaching a four-year low, according to USDA projections and StoneX Chief Economist Arlan Suderman. Robust export demand is expected to prompt the USDA to raise its corn export estimate for the fourth consecutive month in its July WASDE report.

December corn futures fell 2.25 cents to $4.1375 per bushel overnight, while new-crop December rebounded slightly to $4.1550 after hitting a contract low of $4.1175. Markets appear to be stabilizing after steep recent losses, with weaker prices slowing farmer selling and traders showing caution ahead of Friday's USDA report. Still, technical momentum remains bearish, especially with no significant weather threats in the Midwest.

Key price levels to watch include the recent contract low of $4.1175 and the 10-day simple moving average near $4.23. Barchart's national average cash corn price rose 1.5 cents Wednesday to $3.8550, near an eight-month low.

Suderman notes that old-crop exports could rise by as much as 75 million bushels, tightening 2024-25 ending stocks below 1.3 billion bushels. While such a scenario typically supports prices, the market remains laser-focused on new crop prospects, which are currently boosted by favorable Midwest weather.

Corn production may dip slightly to 15.731 billion bushels from 15.82 billion, following USDA's lower acreage report. However, average yields are expected to hold steady at 181 bushels per acre.

Soybeans also remain under pressure. November futures fell to $10.0225, the lowest intraday price since April. The contract has dropped 5% this week, weighed down by beneficial weather, heavy supplies, and lingering trade uncertainties.

Barchart's front-month national average cash soybean price declined 12.5 cents to $9.6850-its lowest in three months. Analysts expect Friday's USDA report to slightly increase ending stocks to 358 million bushels for 2024-25.

In wheat, September SRW futures gained 3.75 cents to $5.5075 after four consecutive daily losses. September HRW rose 6.25 cents to $5.3025. While harvest pressure continues, USDA may reduce its winter wheat crop estimate by 24 million bushels to 1.358 billion, even though this figure would still represent a 10-year high.

Weather continues to dominate market sentiment. Soaking rains are forecast across the central Corn Belt with cooler temperatures expected from mid-July. NOAA's latest outlooks project above-normal rainfall and below-normal temperatures across much of the Midwest-ideal conditions for corn pollination.

Traders await weekly USDA export sales and the July WASDE report. Depending on the numbers, markets could see sharp shifts, influencing marketing decisions for growers and ag cooperatives.