This week's confirmation of a New World screwworm case in Maryland-the first domestic human case-adds new pressure to keep U.S. borders closed to live cattle imports. While the case originated from a traveler abroad, its discovery on American soil is expected to delay any reopening of the southern border.

From a market standpoint, this is bullish. As long as the U.S. border remains closed, the supply of feeder cattle stays tight. That supply constraint has contributed directly to the current price rally, and any reopening could introduce both a supply shock and a psychological blow to market sentiment.

Producers and traders alike are bracing for extended import restrictions, at least through the end of 2025. That cautious approach-rooted in biosecurity concerns-should continue to support strong pricing in the feeder cattle sector.

Heifer Retention: The Tipping Point for Herd Expansion

The second key factor influencing the feeder cattle outlook is herd rebuilding. In 2014-15, the U.S. cow herd was rebuilt at lightning speed, triggering a steep drop in feeder cattle prices. But this time, the dynamics appear far different.

Producers remain hesitant to start large-scale heifer retention-a signal that true herd expansion is not yet underway. And that hesitation could push feeder cattle prices even higher. When heifers are held back as replacements rather than marketed for feeding, the available supply of feeder cattle shrinks further, creating another upward pressure on prices.

Unlike the rapid rebuild of the past, today's high input costs, ongoing drought in some regions, and market caution are all slowing the expansion timeline. This slower recovery curve makes a dramatic price crash less likely in the near term and increases the chance for sustained, even record-setting, feeder cattle values.

Watch the Signals: Market Still Has Room to Run

What makes the current rally exceptional is not just its magnitude-but its resilience. The feeder cattle market has absorbed shocks, weathered volatility, and kept climbing. That resilience reflects more than just strong demand; it's rooted in tight supply chains, delayed herd rebuilding, and cautious producer behavior.

Market analysts now believe the feeder cattle complex could break new ground-especially if heifer retention ramps up slowly and U.S. import restrictions remain in place. In that scenario, the market may find itself with even thinner supplies well into 2026.

Producers and traders should stay engaged, watching for signs of herd expansion and potential changes in border policy. These two signals-heifer retention and border status-will be the clearest indicators of where feeder cattle prices are headed next.