In a "best-case scenario," fertilizer costs have plateaued rather than keeping climbing, according to AgWeb analyst Margy Eckelkamp, citing comments from commodity expert Josh Linville. But mere stabilization won't reverse the damage: prices are still two to four times higher than before the pandemic, squeezing margins across operations from Midwest row crops to Great Plains wheat fields.

Rising natural gas and supply chain disruption play key roles: fertilizer inputs depend heavily on ammonia and urea-derivatives tied to energy costs. As U.S. production lags and global supply tightens, farmers feel the impact. For example, Texas A&M reports that a 50% increase in fertilizer prices translates to an extra $128,000 expense per typical farm.

Some relief is here: AgWeb notes modest recent declines in ammonia and urea prices (e.g., NH at ~$700/ton, 28% urea at ~$275/ton). Still, these rates remain near post-pandemic highs-meaning many growers remain vulnerable.

Farm income forecasts mirror the strain. Despite record net farm income in 2021-22, USDA and Iowa Farm Office warn of falling profitability due to rising input costs and uncertain commodity markets. Corn and soybean prices are still strong, but yield pressures, trade disruptions and inflation could undo gains.

Alternate strategies emerge: precision agriculture to optimize fertilizer use, increased reliance on manure spreading, and evaluating crop rotations. But for many, only policy action-like changes to the next Farm Bill, support for crop insurance, and funding for sustainable agriculture-can rebalance economics and secure food security.