The global grain supply is set to surpass 3 billion tonnes for the first time in history in the 2025-26 marketing year, fueled by record-breaking production of wheat, corn, and rice, according to the latest Grain Market Report released by the International Grains Council (IGC) on September 18.

The monthly report revised upward forecasts for all major grains except rye, projecting a total grains output of 2.412 billion tonnes, up 87 million tonnes or 4% year-on-year. The rise in production comes despite unusually tight carry-in stocks, with the sheer volume of the 2025-26 crop pushing total supply past the 3-billion-tonne mark for the first time ever.

Wheat production is expected to reach 819 million tonnes, representing a 2.5% increase over last year. The corn harvest, meanwhile, is forecast to hit a record 1.297 billion tonnes, a 5% gain from the 2024-25 season. Corn carryover stocks are also projected to rise to 294 million tonnes, contributing to a 3% increase in total grains reserves, now at 606 million tonnes-just shy of the previous five-year average.

Grain trade volumes are also rising sharply. The IGC estimates total grain trade at 438 million tonnes, up 15 million tonnes from the previous year. If realized, this would mark the second-highest trade volume on record, reflecting robust demand across global markets.

In the oilseeds sector, soybean production is expected to hold steady at 429 million tonnes, with gains in South America offsetting declines in other regions. However, global soybean inventories may tighten, as total use is projected to rise 3% year-on-year, driven by increased demand in feed, food, and industrial processing. Soybean trade is forecast to hit a new record of 185 million tonnes, boosted by strong Asian interest.

Rice production is also set to reach new heights, with global output projected at 544 million tonnes. Population growth is anticipated to drive rice consumption to a new peak, while rice trade is expected to increase by 2%, with India accounting for 40% of the global export market.

Despite strong output, global prices are mixed. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index remains largely unchanged from last month, though prices are down 4% from a year ago. Rice prices have fallen significantly-33% year-on-year-which has helped to balance upward trends in corn and barley prices.

The overall outlook presents both opportunities and risks for the U.S. ag sector. For American grain exporters, the sustained global demand-particularly from Asia-offers a strong trade environment. However, increased competition from South American producers and the shifting dynamics of global reserves may influence commodity prices, input costs, and marketing strategies going into the next season.

The IGC's data-driven outlook reinforces the importance of market intelligence, trade policy, and risk management tools such as crop insurance and forward contracting, especially in a year where global surpluses coexist with localized volatility. For stakeholders across the grain supply chain-from farmers to exporters, co-ops, and investors-the 2025-26 marketing year is poised to be one of historic scale and strategic complexity.