The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates that global wheat flour trade contracted to 15.5 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year, a sharp drop from the previous year's 16.9 million tonnes, which was a six-year high. The 9% decline reflects the lowest global flour trade volume in three years. The main driver behind this downturn was Iraq, historically the second-largest flour importer, which saw a significant drop in imports due to its record wheat harvest and government authorization to export up to 2 million tonnes of domestic grain. In tandem, new policies aimed at increasing local flour production and raising tariffs on imported flour further suppressed external demand.

Reduced supply from Turkey, Iraq's traditional top supplier, added to the slowdown. Turkey's flour exports collapsed to a 10-year low of 3.6 million tonnes, nearly 40% below the prior year, largely due to wheat import restrictions that limited its access to competitively priced Black Sea grain. As a result, Iraq's total flour imports in 2024-25 are estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, their lowest level in 14 years, down sharply from 2.1 million tonnes the year before.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan, the world's largest flour importer, is projected to have sourced 3.1 million tonnes, slightly down year-over-year but well above the five-year average. The IGC noted that Afghanistan diversified sourcing by replacing some flour imports from Kazakhstan with raw grain from the same origin. In sub-Saharan Africa, flour imports remained relatively strong at 3.2 million tonnes, matching last year's multi-year high, even as countries like Ethiopia and Somalia shifted from flour to grain imports. Notably, Sudan increased flour imports, primarily from Egypt, which boosted its export volume to a record 2 million tonnes, becoming the third-largest global flour exporter behind Kazakhstan (2.6 million tonnes) and Turkey.

Despite the downturn in 2024-25, the IGC projects a strong recovery in 2025-26, with global flour trade expected to rebound to 17.3 million tonnes-a nine-year high, if realized. This optimistic forecast reflects an anticipated rise in Iraq's flour imports, driven by a potentially smaller domestic wheat crop, and a resurgence in Turkey's exports, projected to jump to 5.3 million tonnes following the lifting of wheat import restrictions. Flour demand in sub-Saharan Africa and Near East Asia is also expected to strengthen, contributing to the projected rebound.

For U.S. agriculture stakeholders, this volatility underscores the importance of closely tracking global commodity flows, evolving import policies, and supply chain dynamics. The shift away from flour imports toward grain in key markets may influence U.S. wheat export competitiveness, particularly if global supply remains tight or if policy environments shift in favor of domestic processing. Moreover, as major exporters like Turkey and Egypt regain momentum, price competition in international markets may intensify, requiring strategic positioning from U.S. producers and grain traders.