Markets Hesitate as Corn and Soy Nudge Higher, Wheat Retreats
Grain prices held mostly steady Thursday as corn and soybeans made slight gains, while wheat dipped on global supply pressure.
Grain market momentum was sluggish on Thursday, with prices across major commodities showing minimal movement. While corn and soybeans edged slightly higher, wheat futures continued to struggle, weighed down by ample global stocks and fresh rounds of technical selling.
Corn futures saw modest upward movement, with December contracts up 1.75 cents to $4.1975 and March up 1.5 cents to $4.3750. Traders appeared encouraged by both a small rebound in ethanol production-which reached an average of 1.075 million barrels/day last week-and anticipation of healthy USDA export sales data expected Friday morning.
Despite USDA's aggressive August projection of a record 16.7 billion bushels in corn production, futures have rallied nearly 30 cents since mid-August, suggesting skepticism about the 188.8 bpa yield estimate. Analysts like Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing point to disease pressures such as Southern Rust and uneven pollination as reasons for possible downward revisions.
Soybean futures also inched higher, with November and January contracts each up 1.5 cents, settling at $10.33 and $10.5150 respectively. Traders engaged in some short-covering, but enthusiasm remained limited as China continues to delay large-scale new crop purchases.
Other parts of the soy complex moved modestly higher: October soymeal gained 0.9%, while soyoil rose less than 0.25%. Analysts expect the USDA's weekly report to reflect mixed results, with new crop soybean sales potentially reaching 58.8 million bushels.
Wheat prices dropped once more, despite signs of early-season demand. December Chicago SRW fell 2.5 cents to $5.1950, and Kansas City HRW dropped 4 cents to $5.0625. The slide reflects both technical selling pressure and strong global competition.
Germany's agriculture ministry projected a 26.3% year-over-year increase in its winter wheat harvest, totaling over 825 million bushels, potentially flooding European markets. Meanwhile, Tunisia purchased 4.6 million bushels of milling wheat from international sources, signaling some demand but not enough to lift markets broadly.
The NOAA 72-hour precipitation outlook shows little rainfall ahead for much of the Midwest, though parts of the Ohio River Valley could see minor showers. The 8-to-14-day forecast indicates drier-than-normal conditions for the Eastern Corn Belt and Great Lakes, with above-average temperatures expected across much of the Central U.S.
In broader economic news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 307 points on speculation the Federal Reserve could opt for a rate cut following a weaker-than-expected jobs report. Meanwhile, crude oil dropped 0.8% to just above $64/barrel, and the U.S. dollar firmed moderately.