Grain and soybean markets were closed Monday in observance of Labor Day, but new data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) points to a potential pivot in investor sentiment, particularly in the soybean complex.

According to the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report released over the weekend, money managers flipped from a net-short to a net-long position in soybean futures during the week ending August 26. Speculators are now holding a net-long position of 19,145 contracts, marking the most bullish stance on soybeans since late June. This is a sharp reversal from the net-short of 1,753 contracts held just a week prior.

The shift reflects renewed confidence in soybean pricing amid seasonal volatility and concerns about yield potential in key production areas. With harvest just weeks away, analysts say fund positioning may reflect broader bets on tighter-than-expected supply or increased demand.

Corn Futures See Reduced Bearish Sentiment

While soybeans captured the spotlight, corn futures also saw notable movement. Money managers reduced their net-short positions in corn to 110,935 contracts, down from 114,637 the previous week. This is the smallest bearish stance in corn since May 27, signaling easing pessimism as traders reassess supply projections and ethanol demand outlooks.

Hard-red winter wheat and soft-red winter wheat also saw declines in short positions. Hedge funds were net short by 47,980 contracts in hard-red winter wheat, a modest dip from 48,365 a week earlier. In the soft-red wheat market, speculators reduced their net-short position from 100,166 to 82,859 contracts, according to CFTC data.

These shifts come amid a volatile global grains environment, with Black Sea exports, South American planting conditions, and macroeconomic factors contributing to price dynamics.

Weather Outlook: Storm Risk Lingers in Upper Midwest

Beyond markets, weather remains a wildcard. The National Weather Service (NWS) reported that scattered thunderstorms are likely across eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota through Monday night. Hail up to half an inch and dangerous lightning are expected, with gusts reaching 60 mph in parts of Minnesota.

Localized flooding may occur where heavier precipitation hits already saturated ground. Western and central Iowa may also see light showers early in the day, with further storm activity expected to return on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, NWS currently rates the severe threat as low.

These conditions come as late-season moisture could still impact final soybean and corn yields across parts of the Midwest, adding an additional layer of complexity for traders and producers alike.

As harvest nears, all eyes will be on yield reports, global export activity, and ongoing fund positioning trends.