USDA Holds Record Corn Yield Forecasts Despite Market Weakness
The USDA's July WASDE report maintains its forecast for record-high corn yields and robust soybean output, even as corn futures continue to tumble.
In the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the USDA stood firm on its corn yield estimate at 181.0 bushels per acre, signaling expectations for a record-setting harvest. Despite a slight production revision from 15.820 to 15.705 billion bushels, the forecast remains historically high.
Corn futures, however, reacted negatively, with December corn prices falling to $4.1150, marking a third contract low in four sessions.
Key Corn Highlights:
Yield: 181.0 BPA (unchanged)
Production: 15.705 billion bu (down from June)
Usage: Lower by 50 million bu, due to feed and residual cuts
Ending stocks: 1.340 billion bu (down from 1.365B)
Exports: Raised by 100 million bu to 2.75 billion, setting a new record
Global corn stocks also dipped to 272.08 MMT, lower than analyst expectations and down from 275.24 MMT in June. South American production (Brazil and Argentina) remained steady.
Soybeans:
Soybean yield projections stayed firm at 52.5 BPA, with production slightly reduced to 4.335 billion bushels. Notable changes include:
Soy crush: Increased by 50 million bu to 2.54 billion, driven by biofuel demand and the EPA's proposed Renewable Fuel Standard targets for 2026-27.
Exports: Decreased from prior estimates
Ending stocks: Unchanged at 350 million bu
Average farm price: Lowered by $0.15 to $10.10 per bushel
Soymeal fell to $290/short ton, while soyoil rose to $0.53/lb
Global stocks: Increased to 126.07 MMT
Wheat:
The USDA pegged total 2025/26 wheat production at 1.929 billion bushels, slightly above expectations. Breakdown:
Winter wheat: 1.345 billion
Spring wheat: 504 million
Durum: 80 million
Exports: Increased by 25 million to 850 million bu
Ending stocks: Down slightly to 890 million bu
Farm price: Steady at $5.40/bu, just below last year's $5.52
Global stocks: Declined modestly to 261.52 MMT
Despite the USDA's optimism on yield potential, the mixed market response and ongoing price declines indicate traders remain skeptical. As the growing season progresses, attention will focus on actual field performance and global demand shifts to validate-or challenge-the USDA's confidence.
| Average trade estimate | 15.731 | 4.334 |
| USDA July | 15.705 | 4.335 |
| USDA June | 15.820 | 4.340 |
| Average trade estimate | 1.353 | 0.358 |
| USDA July | 1.340 | 0.350 |
| USDA June | 1.365 | 0.350 |
| Average trade estimate | 1.720 | 0.302 | 0.895 |
| USDA July | 1.660 | 0.310 | 0.890 |
| USDA June | 1.750 | 0.295 | 0.898 |
| Average trade estimate | 1.915 | 1.358 | 0.773 |
| USDA July | 1.929 | 1.345 | 0.755 |
| USDA June | 1.921 | 1.382 | 0.782 |
| Average trade estimate | 277.46 | 126.31 | 262.69 |
| USDA July | 272.08 | 126.07 | 261.52 |
| USDA June | 275.24 | 125.30 | 262.76 |
| Average trade estimate | 132.53 | 169.25 |
| USDA July | 132.00 | 169.00 |
| USDA June | 130.00 | 169.00 |
| Average trade estimate | 49.97 | 49.27 |
| USDA July | 50.00 | 49.90 |
| USDA June | 50.00 | 49.00 |
NOTE: All figures measured in millions of metric tons (MMT)