In central Kansas, Matt Splitter, a fifth-generation farmer near Lyons, is seeing corn yields surge 30% to 40% above his average production history (APH) - a rare bright spot after two consecutive years of drought and poor returns. Splitter says that in just 10 days of harvest, he's cut more corn than in the past two seasons combined. But even this dramatic production uptick may not be enough to restore financial balance after years of mounting costs and insufficient revenue.

"We got another inch-and-a-half of rain two nights ago," he says, pointing out how timely moisture played a critical role in helping his crop gain test weight late in the season. While he's grateful, the weather has made harvest tricky. "We're picking around some corn and trying not to get stuck."

Despite the strong yields, low market prices and persistent high input costs are keeping farmers like Splitter from breaking even. "Volume always wins," he says. "But I don't know if it's going to cause us to get whole again." He estimates that to return to financial stability, he and many others would need double or even two-and-a-half times the bushels they're pulling from the field this fall.

The USDA's September forecast projected national corn yields to come in about 13% above 2024, with 10 states, including Kansas, expected to hit record numbers. In Kansas specifically, experts like Kansas State University agricultural economist Greg Ibendahl suggest average yields will fall between 131 and 146 bushels per acre, marking a significant turnaround driven by improved weather conditions and better in-season moisture.

Still, many producers entered 2025 already in financial distress. The recent gains are promising, but they come with a dose of realism. "Financially, there's a lot of holes people are going to have to dig themselves out of," Splitter explains. "And I just don't think we can. We can't bushel our way out of it."

Meanwhile, discussions in Washington suggest a potential aid package between $10 billion and $15 billion may be on the table, aimed at providing short-term relief for farmers grappling with high input costs and poor pricing conditions. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed the agency would announce details once the federal government reopens, noting that row crop farmers, including corn and soy growers, will be prioritized.

Splitter remains skeptical. He, like many farmers, doesn't want to rely on federal aid but rather on fair market returns that reflect their production efforts. He's also concerned about tax implications if relief arrives too late in the fiscal year. "There has to be something put into place where I can roll some of this into 2026 if I need to," he says. "Otherwise, I'll get hit with more taxes than I can handle."

In the end, Splitter's story underscores a growing theme across U.S. agriculture: even record yields can't fully offset years of economic hardship. Without structural change - in prices, input costs, and policy - many farmers may remain stuck in survival mode, no matter how strong the harvest.